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Scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal, milestones and indicators for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Nature Ecology & Evolution volume 5, pages 1338–1349 (2021)Cite this article

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Abstract

Despite substantial conservation efforts, the loss of ecosystems continues globally, along with related declines in species and nature’s contributions to people. An effective ecosystem goal, supported by clear milestones, targets and indicators, is urgently needed for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and beyond to support biodiversity conservation, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and efforts to abate climate change. Here, we describe the scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal and milestones, founded on a theory of change, and review available indicators to measure progress. An ecosystem goal should include three core components: area, integrity and risk of collapse. Targets—the actions that are necessary for the goals to be met—should address the pathways to ecosystem loss and recovery, including safeguarding remnants of threatened ecosystems, restoring their area and integrity to reduce risk of collapse and retaining intact areas. Multiple indicators are needed to capture the different dimensions of ecosystem area, integrity and risk of collapse across all ecosystem types, and should be selected for their fitness for purpose and relevance to goal components. Science-based goals, supported by well-formulated action targets and fit-for-purpose indicators, will provide the best foundation for reversing biodiversity loss and sustaining human well-being.

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Fig. 1: Ecosystems are central to meeting all three objectives of the CBD.
Fig. 2: A theory of change to support the design of action targets to achieve an ecosystem goal.
Fig. 3: Reviewed indicators for an ecosystem goal, with recommendations for their further development and use.

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Acknowledgements

We thank N. Ali (UNEP-WCMC) for her comments on an earlier draft. We acknowledge the following funding bodies: the Australian Research Council (FT190100234, to E.N.; LP170101143, to E.N., D.A.K., H.G., N.J.M., J.E.M.W.; DP170100609, to E.N.), Veski and the Office of the Chief Scientist of Victoria (IWF01, to E.N.); funding provided to IUCN by MAVA Foundation (to E.N.).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia

    Emily Nicholson, Kate E. Watermeyer, Jessica A. Rowland, Chloe F. Sato & Simone L. Stevenson

  2. IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management, Gland, Switzerland

    Emily Nicholson, Angela Andrade, David A. Keith & Cara R. Nelson

  3. Conservación Internacional, Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia

    Angela Andrade

  4. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland

    Thomas M. Brooks

  5. World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF), University of The Philippines, Los Baños, The Philippines

    Thomas M. Brooks

  6. Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Thomas M. Brooks

  7. UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge, UK

    Neil D. Burgess & Samantha L. Hill

  8. Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

    Neil D. Burgess

  9. School of Forestry & Resource Conservation, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC

    Su-Ting Cheng

  10. Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, New York, NY, USA

    Hedley S. Grantham

  11. Centre for Ecosystem Science, University of NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    David A. Keith

  12. NSW Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, Hurstville, New South Wales, Australia

    David A. Keith

  13. Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

    Martine Maron & James E. M. Watson

  14. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

    Daniel Metzke

  15. College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia

    Nicholas J. Murray

  16. Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA

    Cara R. Nelson

  17. CORDIO East Africa, Mombasa, Kenya

    David Obura

  18. Key Biodiversity Area Secretariat, BirdLife International, Cambridge, UK

    Andy Plumptre

  19. South African National Biodiversity Institute, Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa

    Andrew L. Skowno

  20. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Andrew L. Skowno

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  1. Emily Nicholson
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Contributions

E.N. led the conceptualization and writing of the paper. E.N., K.E.W., J.A.R., C.F.S. and S.L.S. undertook analysis and interpretation of data. K.E.W., J.A.R., C.F.S., S.L.S., A.A., T.M.B., N.D.B., S.-T.C., H.G., S.L.H., D.A.K., M.M., D.M., N.J.M., C.R.N., D.O., A.P., A.L.S. and J.E.M.W. contributed to discussion, drafting and writing.

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Correspondence to Emily Nicholson.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Peer review information Nature Ecology & Evolution thanks David Moreno Mateos and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Tables 1 and 2 and Methods.

Supplementary Tables 3 and 4

Supplementary Table 3 contains full results of the indicator review (summarized in Fig. 3). Supplementary Table 4 includes metadata detailing the criteria used in judgements in the review process.

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Nicholson, E., Watermeyer, K.E., Rowland, J.A. et al. Scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal, milestones and indicators for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Nat Ecol Evol 5, 1338–1349 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01538-5

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