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Empirical pressure-response relations can benefit assessment of safe operating spaces

Nature Ecology & Evolution volume 5, pages 1078–1079 (2021)Cite this article

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Matters Arising to this article was published on 03 June 2021

The Original Article was published on 17 August 2020

arising from H. Hillebrand et al. Nature Ecology & Evolution https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-1256-9 (2020).

In a recent study, Hillebrand et al.1 tested ecosystem pressure-response data from multiple meta-analyses for multimodality and changing variance, both indicators of ‘tipping point’ thresholds that lead to discontinuous responses such as regime shifts. They found that such thresholds were difficult to detect and argued that threshold and safe operating space concepts are therefore not suitable for environmental management and policy. We find the results of their analysis, however, to be consistent with the current scientific understanding of thresholds that (1) many ecosystems have thresholds that lead to non-linear dynamics such as regime shifts and (2) awareness of the risks associated with such thresholds can help inform environmental management, even when the positions of these thresholds are uncertain. We then discuss (3) how safe operating space concepts relate to threshold concepts. In fact, (4) the approach of Hillebrand et al. could strengthen the empirical basis for assessments of safe operating spaces. We now elaborate on these four points.

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Acknowledgements

We thank J. Rockström, W. Steffen, G. Peterson, V. Galaz, B. Reyers, S. Cornell, J. Kuiper and H. Hillebrand for their comments on this manuscript. L.W.-E. is funded by the ERC Advanced grant no. ERC-2016-ADG 743080 (Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene Project).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

    Steven J. Lade, Lan Wang-Erlandsson & Juan C. Rocha

  2. Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Steven J. Lade

  3. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands

    Arie Staal

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  1. Steven J. Lade
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  2. Lan Wang-Erlandsson
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  4. Juan C. Rocha
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S.J.L., L.W.-E., A.S. and J.C.R. conceived and wrote the paper.

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Correspondence to Steven J. Lade.

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Peer review information Nature Ecology & Evolution thanks the anonymous reviewers for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Lade, S.J., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Staal, A. et al. Empirical pressure-response relations can benefit assessment of safe operating spaces. Nat Ecol Evol 5, 1078–1079 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-021-01481-5

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