Abstract
Global biodiversity is undergoing rapid declines, driven in large part by changes to land use and climate. Global models help us to understand the consequences of environmental changes for biodiversity, but tend to neglect important geographical variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. Here we test whether biodiversity responses to climate change and land-use change differ among biomes (geographical units that have marked differences in environment and species composition). We find the strongest negative responses to both pressures in tropical biomes and in the Mediterranean. A further analysis points towards similar underlying drivers for the sensitivity to each pressure: we find both greater reductions in species richness in the types of land use most disturbed by humans and more negative predicted responses to climate change in areas of lower climatic seasonality, and in areas where a greater proportion of species are near their upper temperature limit. Within the land most modified by humans, reductions in biodiversity were particularly large in regions where humans have come to dominate the land more recently. Our results will help to improve predictions of how biodiversity is likely to change with ongoing climatic and land-use changes, pointing toward particularly large declines in the tropics where much future agricultural expansion is expected to occur. This finding could help to inform the development of the post-2020 biodiversity framework, by highlighting the under-studied regions where biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 digital issues and online access to articles
$119.00 per year
only $9.92 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All data required to run the analyses are published on FigShare: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.12674372.
Code availability
All code used in the analyses is publicly available at: https://github.com/timnewbold/BiomeSpecificResponsesPublic.
References
Newbold, T. et al. Global effects of land use on local terrestrial biodiversity. Nature 520, 45–50 (2015).
Grooten, M. & Almond, R. E. A. (eds) Living Planet Report ‒ 2018: Aiming Higher (WWF, 2018).
Hallmann, C. A. et al. More than 75 percent decline over 27 years in total flying insect biomass in protected areas. PLoS ONE 12, e0185809 (2017).
Soroye, P., Newbold, T. & Kerr, J. Climate change contributes to widespread declines among bumble bees across continents. Science 367, 685–688 (2020).
Tittensor, D. P. et al. A mid-term analysis of progress toward international biodiversity targets. Science 346, 241–244 (2014).
Newbold, T. et al. Climate and land-use change homogenise terrestrial biodiversity, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and human well-being. Emerg. Top. Life Sci. 3, 207–219 (2019).
Nicholson, E. et al. Scenarios and models to support global conservation targets. Trends Ecol. Evol. 34, 57–68 (2019).
Ferrier, S. et al. (eds) The Methodological Assessment Report on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, 2016).
Newbold, T. Future effects of climate and land-use change on terrestrial vertebrate community diversity under different scenarios. Proc. R. Soc. B Biol. Sci. 285, 20180792 (2018).
Marshall, L. et al. The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees. Glob. Change Biol. 24, 101–116 (2018).
Meyer, C., Kreft, H., Guralnick, R. & Jetz, W. Global priorities for an effective information basis of biodiversity distributions. Nat. Commun. 6, 8221 (2015).
Visconti, P. et al. Projecting global biodiversity indicators under future development scenarios. Conserv. Lett. 9, 5–13 (2016).
Mace, G. M. et al. Aiming higher to bend the curve of biodiversity loss. Nat. Sustain. 1, 448–451 (2018).
Araújo, M. B., Alagador, D., Cabeza, M., Nogués-Bravo, D. & Thuiller, W. Climate change threatens European conservation areas. Ecol. Lett. 14, 484–492 (2011).
Pinsky, M. L., Eikeset, A. M., McCauley, D. J., Payne, J. L. & Sunday, J. M. Greater vulnerability to warming of marine versus terrestrial ectotherms. Nature 569, 108–111 (2019).
Alkemade, R. et al. GLOBIO3: a framework to investigate options for reducing global terrestrial biodiversity loss. Ecosystems 12, 374–390 (2009).
Martins, I. S. & Pereira, H. M. Improving extinction projections across scales and habitats using the countryside species-area relationship. Sci. Rep. 7, 12899 (2017).
Newbold, T. et al. Widespread winners and narrow-ranged losers: land use homogenizes biodiversity in local assemblages worldwide. PLoS Biol. 16, e2006841 (2018).
Blowes, S. A. et al. The geography of biodiversity change in marine and terrestrial assemblages. Science 366, 339–345 (2019).
Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Van Drecht, G. & De Vos, M. The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human-induced global land-use change over the past 12,000 years. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 20, 73–86 (2011).
Balmford, A. Extinction filters and current resilience: the significance of past selection pressures for conservation biology. Trends Ecol. Evol. 11, 193–196 (1996).
Stevens, G. C. The latitudinal gradient in geographic range: how so many species coexist in the tropics. Am. Nat. 133, 240–256 (1989).
Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S. & Araújo, M. B. Niche properties and geographical extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 14, 347–357 (2005).
Forister, M. L. et al. The global distribution of diet breadth in insect herbivores. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 442–447 (2015).
Newbold, T. et al. Ecological traits affect the response of tropical forest bird species to land-use intensity. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci. 280, 20122131 (2013).
Rader, R., Bartomeus, I., Tylianakis, J. M. & Laliberté, E. The winners and losers of land use intensification: pollinator community disassembly is non-random and alters functional diversity. Divers. Distrib. 20, 908–917 (2014).
Pacifici, M. et al. Species’ traits influenced their response to recent climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 205–208 (2017).
Wiersma, P., Munoz-Garcia, A., Walker, A. & Williams, J. B. Tropical birds have a slow pace of life. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 9340–9345 (2007).
Sunday, J. M. et al. Thermal-safety margins and the necessity of thermoregulatory behavior across latitude and elevation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 5610–5615 (2014).
Orme, C. D. L. et al. Distance to range edge determines sensitivity to deforestation. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 886–891 (2019).
Frishkoff, L. O., Hadly, E. A. & Daily, G. C. Thermal niche predicts tolerance to habitat conversion in tropical amphibians and reptiles. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 3901–3916 (2015).
Frishkoff, L. O. et al. Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species. Ecol. Lett. 19, 1081–1090 (2016).
Williams, J. J. & Newbold, T. Local climatic changes affect biodiversity responses to land use: a review. Divers. Distrib. 26, 76–92 (2020).
De Frenne, P. et al. Global buffering of temperatures under forest canopies. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 744–749 (2019).
Williams, J. J., Bates, A. E. & Newbold, T. Human‐dominated land uses favour species affiliated with more extreme climates, especially in the tropics. Ecography 43, 391–405 (2020).
Janzen, D. H. Why mountain passes are higher in the tropics. Am. Nat. 101, 233–249 (1967).
Srinivasan, U., Elsen, P. R. & Wilcove, D. S. Annual temperature variation influences the vulnerability of montane bird communities to land‐use change. Ecography 42, 2084–2094 (2019).
Newbold, T. et al. Global patterns of terrestrial assemblage turnover within and among land uses. Ecography 39, 1151–1163 (2016).
Hillebrand, H. et al. Biodiversity change is uncoupled from species richness trends: consequences for conservation and monitoring. J. Appl. Ecol. 55, 169–184 (2018).
Hudson, L. N. et al. The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project. Ecol. Evol. 7, 145–188 (2017).
Chen, I.-C., Hill, J. K., Ohlemuller, R., Roy, D. B. & Thomas, C. D. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333, 1024–1026 (2011).
Senior, R. A., Hill, J. K., González del Pliego, P., Goode, L. K. & Edwards, D. P. A. Pantropical analysis of the impacts of forest degradation and conversion on local temperature. Ecol. Evol. 7, 7897–7908 (2017).
Trenberth, K. E. Changes in precipitation with climate change. Clim. Res. 47, 123–138 (2011).
Fu, B., Wang, J., Chen, L. & Qiu, Y. The effects of land use on soil moisture variation in the Danangou catchment of the Loess Plateau, China. Catena 54, 197–213 (2003).
Hurtt, G. C. et al. Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands. Clim. Change 109, 117–161 (2011).
Mora, C. et al. The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502, 183–187 (2013).
García-Vega, D. & Newbold, T. Assessing the effects of land use on biodiversity in the world’s drylands and Mediterranean environments. Biodivers. Conserv. 29, 393–408 (2020).
Jenkins, C. N., Pimm, S. L. & Joppa, L. N. Global patterns of terrestrial vertebrate diversity and conservation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, E2602–E2610 (2013).
Myers, N., Mittermeier, R. A., Mittermeier, C. G., Da Fonseca, G. A. B. & Kent, J. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403, 853–858 (2000).
Dornelas, M. et al. BioTIME: A database of biodiversity time series for the Anthropocene. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 27, 760–786 (2018).
Pearson, R. G. & Dawson, T. P. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 12, 361–371 (2003).
Newbold, T., Sanchez-Ortiz, K., De Palma, A., Hill, S. L. L. & Purvis, A. Reply to ‘The biodiversity intactness index may underestimate losses’. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 864–865 (2019).
Roslin, T. et al. Higher predation risk for insect prey at low latitudes and elevations. Science 356, 742–744 (2017).
The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Version 2013.7 (IUCN, 2013); http://www.iucnredlist.org/
Bird Species Distribution Maps of the World Version 2.0 (BirdLife International & NatureServe, 2012); http://www.birdlife.org/datazone/info/spcdownload
Hudson, L. N. et al. The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts. Ecol. Evol. 4, 4701–4735 (2014).
Zero Draft of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework Resolution CBD/WG2020/2/3 (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2020).
Holt, B. G. et al. An update of Wallace’s zoogeographic regions of the world. Science 339, 74–78 (2013).
Kissling, W. D., Sekercioglu, C. H. & Jetz, W. Bird dietary guild richness across latitudes, environments and biogeographic regions. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 21, 328–340 (2012).
Smith, J. R. et al. A global test of ecoregions. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2, 1889–1896 (2018).
Dinerstein, E. et al. An ecoregion-based approach to protecting half the terrestrial realm. BioScience 67, 534–545 (2017).
Terrestrial Ecoregions of the World (The Nature Conservancy, 2009); http://maps.tnc.org/gis_data.html
Hudson, L. N. et al. Dataset: The 2016 Release of the PREDICTS Database (Natural History Museum Data Portal, 2016); https://doi.org/10.5519/0066354
Powers, R. P. & Jetz, W. Global habitat loss and extinction risk of terrestrial vertebrates under future land-use-change scenarios. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 323–329 (2019).
Bolker, B. M. et al. Generalized linear mixed models: a practical guide for ecology and evolution. Trends Ecol. Evol. 24, 127–135 (2008).
Rigby, R. A., Stasinopoulos, D. M. & Akantziliotou, C. A framework for modelling overdispersed count data, including the Poisson-shifted generalized inverse Gaussian distribution. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 53, 381–393 (2008).
Herkt, K. M. B., Skidmore, A. K. & Fahr, J. Macroecological conclusions based on IUCN expert maps: a call for caution. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 26, 930–941 (2017).
Van Vuuren, D. P. et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109, 5–31 (2011).
Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G. & Jarvis, A. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1965–1978 (2005).
Andrén, H. Effects of habitat fragmentation on birds and mammals in landscapes with different proportions of suitable habitat: a review. Oikos 71, 355–366 (1994).
Bivand, R. & Wong, D. W. S. Comparing implementations of global and local indicators of spatial association. TEST 27, 716–748 (2018).
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship to T.N. J.J.W. and A.E. were supported by research grants from the Royal Society, awarded to T.N.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
T.N. and P.O. conceived and designed the study and carried out the main analyses. A.E. and J.J.W. input analytical tools and important insight on aspects of the work. T.N. wrote the final manuscript, with substantial inputs from all authors.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Peer review information Peer reviewer reports are available.
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Extended data
Extended Data Fig. 1 Map of sites with data in the PREDICTS database used for analysing land-use responses.
Points are coloured by one of the classifications of biomes, which we used in our analyses.
Extended Data Fig. 2 Modelled differences in biodiversity among land-use types.
Results are shown for three community-level measures of biodiversity: total sampled species richness, total sampled community abundance, and community-average range size. The last is a measure of the inverse of the endemicity of species within communities, and is the average of the range sizes of all sampled species in the community, weighted by sampled abundance. All values are expressed as a percentage change relative to primary vegetation as the baseline. Numbers in parentheses are the lower and upper bounds of the 95% confidence limits.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Statistics for mixed-effects models of species richness with different land-use groupings.
Species richness was modelled as a function of both land use (using the different combinations as shown here) and biome (using the finest division into 11 different biomes). Shown are the model degrees of freedom (DF), difference in AIC compared with the best-fitting model (ΔAIC), and the conditional and marginal R2 values72. The best-fitting model is shown in italics, while the land-use combination used in the final models is shown in bold. PV = Primary Vegetation; SV = Secondary Vegetation; PF = Plantation Forest; CR = Cropland; PA = Pasture; Agric. = Cleared Agriculture (Cropland + Pasture); Harv. = Harvested agriculture (Plantation Forest + Cropland); Human = Human-dominated Land use (Plantation Forest + Cropland + Pasture).
Extended Data Fig. 4 Statistics for species richness models with different biome groupings.
Species richness was modelled as a function of both land use (using the finest division into five different land-use categories) and biome (using the different combinations as shown here). Shown are the model degrees of freedom (DF), difference in AIC compared with the best fitting model (ΔAIC), and the conditional and marginal R2 values72. The best-fitting model is shown in italics, while the biome combination used in the final models is shown in bold. BF = Boreal Forests/Taiga; TeCF = Temperate Conifer Forests; TeBF = Temperate Broadleaf and Mixed Forests; TrCF = Tropical and Subtropical Coniferous Forests; TrDBF = Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forests; TrMBF = Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests; TeG = Temperate Grasslands, Savannas and Shrublands; TrG = Tropical and Subtropical Grasslands, Savannas and Shrublands; MoG = Montane Grasslands and Shrublands; MED = Mediterranean Forests, Woodlands and Scrub; DRY = Deserts and Xeric Shrublands; TeF = Temperate Forests (Coniferous and Broadleaf); TrF = Tropical Forests (Coniferous, Dry Broadleaf and Moist Broadleaf); TeMoG = Temperate and Montane Grasslands; Temp. = Temperate (Forests and Grasslands, including Montane Grasslands); Trop. = Tropical (Forests and Grasslands); NonTrop. = Non-Tropical (Boreal and Temperate Forest and Grasslands, including Montane Grasslands); For. = Forest (Boreal, Temperate and Tropical); Grass. = Grasslands (Temperate, Montane and Tropical).
Extended Data Fig. 5 Differences in total abundance among land-use types, across different biomes.
a) Tropical forest; b) Tropical grasslands; c) Drylands; d) Mediterranean; e) Temperate forest; and f) Temperate grasslands. Plots show the percentage change in species richness compared to primary vegetation (PV), in secondary vegetation (SV), pasture (PAS) and areas of harvested agriculture (woody plantations and herbaceous croplands; HARV). Error bars show 95% confidence intervals. Sample sizes at the bottom of each panel refer to the number of sites in each combination of land use and biome. The final model plotted here had an R2conditional of 0.89 and an R2marginal of 0.031.
Extended Data Fig. 6 Differences in community-average range size (RCAR) among land-use types, across different biomes.
a) Tropical forest; b) Tropical grasslands; c) Drylands; d) Mediterranean; e) Temperate forest; and f) Temperate grasslands. Plots show the percentage change in species richness compared to primary vegetation (PV), in secondary vegetation (SV), pasture (PAS) and areas of harvested agriculture (woody plantations and herbaceous croplands; HARV). Error bars show 95% confidence intervals. Sample sizes at the bottom of each panel refer to the number of sites in each combination of land use and biome. The final model plotted here had an R2conditional of 0.87 and an R2marginal of 0.10.
Extended Data Fig. 7 Sensitivity of biodiversity to climate change across biomes.
Shown is the predicted percentage change in species richness for each °C of climate warming expected under the RCP 2.6 scenario. Results for the RCP 8.5 scenario are shown in Fig. 2. Biomes considered were tropical forests (TrF), tropical grasslands (TrG), drylands (Dry), Mediterranean (Med), temperate forest (TeF), temperate grasslands (TeG) and boreal forest (BoF). Thick horizontal black lines show median values across all grid cells within the biome, boxes extend to the first and third quartiles, and whiskers to 1.5 × the inter-quartile range.
Extended Data Fig. 8 Overview of input datasets used.
References correspond to the numbered references in the bibliography, unless given as DOIs.
Supplementary information
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Newbold, T., Oppenheimer, P., Etard, A. et al. Tropical and Mediterranean biodiversity is disproportionately sensitive to land-use and climate change. Nat Ecol Evol 4, 1630–1638 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01303-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01303-0
This article is cited by
-
Biodiversity–production feedback effects lead to intensification traps in agricultural landscapes
Nature Ecology & Evolution (2024)
-
Atmospheric CO2 forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs
Nature Communications (2023)
-
Effects of the intensity of land-use changes on taxonomic and functional diversity of fish in a Neotropical floodplain
Aquatic Sciences (2023)
-
Adaptation strategies for dealing with global atmospheric change in Mediterranean agriculture: a triple helix approach to the Spanish case study
Regional Environmental Change (2023)
-
Potential individual and interactive effects of climate and land-cover changes on bats and implications for conservation planning: a case study in Vietnam
Biodiversity and Conservation (2023)