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Shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period

Nature Ecology & Evolution volume 1, pages 1438–1445 (2017)Cite this article

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Abstract

Carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization effects on ecosystem carbon sequestration may slow down in the future because of emerging nutrient constraints, climate change reducing the effect of fertilization, and expanding land use change and land management and disturbances. Further, record high temperatures and droughts are leading to negative impacts on carbon sinks. We suggest that, together, these two phenomena might drive a shift from a period dominated by the positive effects of fertilization to a period characterized by the saturation of the positive effects of fertilization on carbon sinks and the rise of negative impacts of climate change. We discuss the evidence and processes that are likely to be leading to this shift.

Humans strongly fertilize the planet, and human activities are resulting in increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2)1 and nitrogen (N) inputs to ecosystems2. This leads to increased availability of biospheric carbon (C) and N, and enhanced organismal metabolism. Furthermore, warming1 is lengthening the growing seasons in the Northern Hemisphere3,4. This causes enhanced plant growth, which is a driver of C sinks but is not sufficient alone: there must also be ecosystem compartments where C is retained before being cycled back to the atmosphere, and plants must allocate C to these long-lived compartments. In fact, the magnitude of C sinks and their duration depend both on the rate of increase of C inputs and on the residence time of the C being taken up by ecosystems. Changes in these two processes will affect the future evolution of sinks—and thus of atmospheric CO2 and climate. For instance, if the input to land C pools from primary productivity slows down and eventually saturates (for example, because of emerging nutrient constraints on plant productivity), and if the residence time of excess C remains constant, sinks will slowly decrease and eventually disappear. If, instead, the C residence time becomes shorter (for example, in the case of increased biomass mortality or an increasing allocation of C to short-lived pools such as fine roots and leaves), then ecosystems lose part of their sink capacity even if their productivity continues to increase. Examples of this occur when disturbances such as fire lead to the long-term reduction of forest biomass and soil C, or to the exposure to decomposition of previously protected soil C. In the case of an irreversible disturbance not followed by a recovery of C stocks, there is not only an initial source of CO2 to the atmosphere, but there is the replacement of a slow turnover system with a faster one that reduces the sink capacity in the long term; an example is the conversion of forest lands to croplands. Changes in residence time are a function of changes in land use/management and disturbances, changes in C allocation and decomposition, and changes in ecosystem structure. Past, current and future changes in land C sinks thus result from the interplay between an overall change in productivity and/or changes in the residence times of C in ecosystem pools. Both productivity and residence times respond to changing CO2, climate and nutrient availability5.

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Fig. 1: CO2 and temperature sensitivity of annual amplitude (AMP).
Fig. 2: Warming impacts on C storage in the tropics, mid-latitudes and boreal and arctic zones.
Fig. 3: Schematics showing the impacts and feedbacks of the drivers of global change on C sinks by their effects on productivity and C residence time.

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Acknowledgements

This Perspective was presented in the acceptance speech of the Ramon Margalef Prize in Ecology (November 2016) by J.P. The authors would like to acknowledge the financial support from the European Research Council Synergy grant ERC-SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P, the Spanish Government grant CGL2016-79835-P and the Catalan Government grant SGR 2014-274. The authors also acknowledge the improvement of the manuscript by C. Prentice.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CEAB-UAB, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Catalonia, Spain

    Josep Peñuelas, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Jofre Carnicer & Jordi Sardans

  2. CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Catalonia, Spain

    Josep Peñuelas, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, Jofre Carnicer & Jordi Sardans

  3. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, IPSL, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

    Philippe Ciais & Robert Vautard

  4. Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

    Josep G. Canadell

  5. Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology (PLECO), Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, B-2610, Wilrijk, Belgium

    Ivan A. Janssens

  6. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services and Management, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria

    Michael Obersteiner

  7. Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University 5 Yiheyuan Road, Haidian District, 100871, Beijing, China

    Shilong Piao

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  1. Josep Peñuelas
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Contributions

J.P. designed the study. J.P., P.C., M.F.-M., R.V. and J.S. conducted the analyses with support from J.C., I.A.J., J.C., M.O. and S.P. The paper was drafted by J.P. and P.C. M.F.-M., R.V., J.S., J.C., I.A.J., J.C., M.O. and S.P. contributed to the interpretation of the results and to the text.

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Correspondence to Josep Peñuelas.

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Peñuelas, J., Ciais, P., Canadell, J.G. et al. Shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period. Nat Ecol Evol 1, 1438–1445 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0274-8

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