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Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Nature Ecology & Evolution volume 1, pages 1416–1419 (2017)Cite this article

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Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Scenarios are powerful tools to envision how nature might respond to different pathways of future human development and policy choices1. Most scenarios developed for global environmental assessments have explored impacts of society on nature, such as biodiversity loss, but have not included nature as a component of socioeconomic development2. They ignore policy objectives related to nature protection and neglect nature’s role in underpinning development and human well-being. This approach is becoming untenable because targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, such as in the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. The next generation of scenarios should explore alternative pathways to reach these intertwined targets, including potential synergies and trade-offs between nature conservation and other development goals, as well as address feedbacks between nature, nature’s contributions to people, and human well-being. The development of these scenarios would benefit from the use of participatory approaches, integrating stakeholders from multiple sectors (for example, fisheries, agriculture, forestry) and should address decision-makers from the local to the global scale3, thereby supporting assessments being undertaken by the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).

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Fig. 1: Strategy to develop the next generation of biodiversity and ecosystem services scenarios supporting the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.
Fig. 2: Constructing multiscale, multisectoral visions for nature futures.

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Acknowledgements

These recommendations emerged from a workshop held at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), in Leipzig, between 3 and 6 October 2016, organized and funded by the Technical Support Unit on Scenarios and Models of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services of IPBES Deliverable 3c, and iDiv. I.M.D.R. has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 703862.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), 04103, Leipzig, Germany

    Isabel M. D. Rosa, Henrique M. Pereira, Carsten Meyer, Laetitia M. Navarro, Carsten Nesshöver & Josef Settele

  2. Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06108, Halle, Germany

    Isabel M. D. Rosa, Henrique M. Pereira, Laetitia M. Navarro & Ralf Seppelt

  3. Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos (CIBIO), Universidade do Porto, 4485-661, Vairāo, Portugal

    Henrique M. Pereira

  4. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Land and Water, Canberra, 2601, Australia

    Simon Ferrier

  5. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2500 GH, The Hague, The Netherlands

    Rob Alkemade, Eefje den Belder, Marcel T. J. Kok, Tanya Lazarova, Aafke M. Schipper & Detlef van Vuuren

  6. Department of Community and Environmental Resource Planning, College of Human Ecology, University of the Philippines Los Banos (UPLB), 4031, Laguna, Philippines

    Lilibeth A. Acosta

  7. Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, 11794-5245, USA

    H. Resit Akcakaya

  8. Agrosystems Research, Wageningen University and Research, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Eefje den Belder

  9. University College of Environment, Karaj, 14155-6135, Iran

    Asghar M. Fazel

  10. ECO Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ECO-IEST), Karaj, 31746-118, Iran

    Asghar M. Fazel

  11. Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan

    Shinichiro Fujimori

  12. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria

    Shinichiro Fujimori

  13. United Nations Environment Programme, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK

    Mike Harfoot

  14. Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency (EEAA), Maadi, Cairo, 11728, Egypt

    Khaled A. Harhash

  15. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK

    Paula A. Harrison

  16. UFZ — Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 04318, Leipzig, Germany

    Jennifer Hauck & Carsten Nesshöver

  17. CoKnow Consulting, 04838, Jesewitz, Germany

    Jennifer Hauck & Ralf Seppelt

  18. Directorate of Agro and Nature Knowledge, Ministry of Economic Affairs, 2594 AC, The Hague, The Netherlands

    Rob J. J. Hendriks

  19. Centre for World Economy Studies (CIEM), Miramar, 11300, Habana, Cuba

    Gladys Hernández & Ramon Pichs

  20. Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Department, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06520-8106, USA

    Walter Jetz & Carsten Meyer

  21. Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7PY, UK

    Walter Jetz

  22. Public Administration Group, Wageningen University and Research, 6708 PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Sylvia I. Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen

  23. National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon, 33657, Republic of Korea

    HyeJin Kim

  24. Research Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, 2520, South Africa

    Nicholas King

  25. I.I. Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kiev, 01030, Ukraine

    Grygoriy O. Kolomytsev

  26. Laboratoire d’Ecologie, Systématique et Evolution, Université Paris-Sud, 91405, Orsay, France

    Paul Leadley

  27. Institute of Marine Science, University of Auckland, Auckland, 1142, New Zealand

    Carolyn J. Lundquist

  28. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA), Hamilton, 3216, New Zealand

    Carolyn J. Lundquist

  29. IRI THESys, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10117, Berlin, Germany

    Jaime García Márquez

  30. IPBES secretariat, D-53113, Bonn, Germany

    Hien T. Ngo

  31. Centre for Economics, Environment and Society, Bangalore, 560 047, India

    Karachepone N. Ninan

  32. Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales (MACN-CONICET), C1405DJR, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Maria G. Palomo

  33. Centre for Complex Systems in Transition, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, 7600, South Africa

    Laura M. Pereira

  34. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91, Stockholm, Sweden

    Garry D. Peterson

  35. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegraphenberg, 14473, Potsdam, Germany

    Alexander Popp

  36. Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London, SW7 5BD, UK

    Andy Purvis

  37. Instituto de Ciências Agrárias e Ambientais Mediterrânica (ICAAM), University of Évora, 7002-554, Évora, Portugal

    Federica Ravera

  38. Agroecology and Food Systems, UVic-Universitat Central De Catalunya, 08500 Vic, Barcelona, Spain

    Federica Ravera

  39. CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, 08193, Catalonia, Spain

    Federica Ravera

  40. Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza University of Rome, 00185, Rome, Italy

    Carlo Rondinini

  41. Centre for Economic and Social Studies (CESS), Hyderabad, 500016, India

    Jyothis Sathyapalan

  42. UFZ — Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, 06120, Halle, Germany

    Josef Settele

  43. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Stellenbosch, 7600, South Africa

    Nadia Sitas

Authors
  1. Isabel M. D. Rosa
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  2. Henrique M. Pereira
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  3. Simon Ferrier
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  4. Rob Alkemade
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  5. Lilibeth A. Acosta
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  6. H. Resit Akcakaya
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  7. Eefje den Belder
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  8. Asghar M. Fazel
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  9. Shinichiro Fujimori
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  10. Mike Harfoot
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  11. Khaled A. Harhash
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  12. Paula A. Harrison
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  13. Jennifer Hauck
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  14. Rob J. J. Hendriks
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  15. Gladys Hernández
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  16. Walter Jetz
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  17. Sylvia I. Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen
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  18. HyeJin Kim
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  19. Nicholas King
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  20. Marcel T. J. Kok
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  21. Grygoriy O. Kolomytsev
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  22. Tanya Lazarova
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  23. Paul Leadley
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  25. Jaime García Márquez
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  26. Carsten Meyer
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  27. Laetitia M. Navarro
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  28. Carsten Nesshöver
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  29. Hien T. Ngo
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  30. Karachepone N. Ninan
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  31. Maria G. Palomo
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  32. Laura M. Pereira
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  33. Garry D. Peterson
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  34. Ramon Pichs
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  35. Alexander Popp
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  36. Andy Purvis
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  37. Federica Ravera
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  38. Carlo Rondinini
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  39. Jyothis Sathyapalan
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  40. Aafke M. Schipper
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  41. Ralf Seppelt
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  42. Josef Settele
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  43. Nadia Sitas
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  44. Detlef van Vuuren
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Contributions

I.M.D.R. and H.M.P. wrote the paper with input from all co-authors. All co-authors were participants in the workshop, and provided comments and revisions to the manuscript. Note that the author list, after the fourth author, is in alphabetic order by authors’ surname.

Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Isabel M. D. Rosa or Henrique M. Pereira.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Rosa, I.M.D., Pereira, H.M., Ferrier, S. et al. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures. Nat Ecol Evol 1, 1416–1419 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-017-0273-9

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