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Recent extinctions disturb path to equilibrium diversity in Caribbean bats

Nature Ecology & Evolution volume 1, Article number: 0026 (2017) Cite this article

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Abstract

Islands are ideal systems to model temporal changes in biodiversity and reveal the influence of humans on natural communities. Although theory predicts biodiversity on islands tends towards an equilibrium value, the recent extinction of large proportions of island biotas complicates testing this model. The well-preserved subfossil record of Caribbean bats—involving multiple insular radiations—provides a rare opportunity to model diversity dynamics in an insular community. Here, we reconstruct the diversity trajectory in noctilionoid bats of the Greater Antilles by applying a dynamic model of colonization, extinction and speciation to phylogenetic and palaeontological data including all known extinct and extant species. We show species richness asymptotes to an equilibrium value, a demonstration of natural equilibrium dynamics across an entire community. However, recent extinctions—many caused by humans—have wiped out nearly a third of island lineages, dragging diversity away from equilibrium. Using a metric to measure island biodiversity loss, we estimate it will take at least eight million years to regain pre-human diversity levels. Our integrative approach reveals how anthropogenic extinctions can drastically alter the natural trajectory of biological communities, resulting in evolutionary disequilibrium.

Whether species diversity is dominated by equilibrium dynamics or is fundamentally non-equilibrial is a crucial, currently unresolved question in biodiversity and conservation research1,2. According to equilibrium explanations, biodiversity asymptotes to a constant value3,4, while under non-equilibrium models species richness has no upper bound1,2. The equilibrium theory of island biogeography5 favours an equilibrium model for diversity on islands, but the potential confounding effect of Quaternary extinctions has been a key obstacle to testing this model6. Insular species have evolved in isolation and have proved vulnerable to both Pleistocene climate change7 and human activities, including the introduction of non-native species, habitat destruction and exploitation8,9. As a result, many islands have lost large portions of their biota during the Quaternary and especially following human colonization10. By failing to include extinct species, analyses testing for equilibrium dynamics may overlook critical information needed to calculate natural rates of species accumulation11,12.

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Figure 1: Quaternary diversity of noctilionoid bats in the GA.
Figure 2: Bootstrap precision estimates of the parameters of the DI model.
Figure 3: Expected future noctilionoid bat endemic diversity in the GA for the high human impact scenario.

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Acknowledgements

We thank A. Phillimore for discussions regarding DAISIE. We thank M. Lim, A. Phillimore, D. Rojas and L. Yohe for comments on the manuscript. Illustrations were produced by A. Tejedor. L.V. was funded by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Brandenburg Ministry of Science, Research and Culture and the German Research Foundation (DFG Grant VA 1102/1-1). L.M.D. was supported by the National Science Foundation (DEB-1442142). R.S.E. was supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) through a VICI grant.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Unit of Evolutionary Biology/Systematic Zoology, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24–25, Haus 26, Potsdam, D-14476, Germany

    Luis Valente

  2. Museum fìr Naturkunde, Leibniz-Institut fìr Evolutions und Biodiversitätsforschung, Invalidenstr. 43, Berlin, 10115, Germany

    Luis Valente

  3. Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen, PO Box 11103, Groningen, 9700 CC, The Netherlands

    Rampal S. Etienne

  4. Department of Ecology and Evolution, Stony Brook University, 650 Life Sciences Building, Stony Brook, 11794, New York, USA

    Liliana M. Dávalos

  5. Consortium for Inter-Disciplinary Environmental Research, School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, 129 Dana Hall, Stony Brook, 11794, New York, USA

    Liliana M. Dávalos

Authors
  1. Luis Valente
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Contributions

L.M.D. and L.V. designed the study and wrote the manuscript. L.V. performed the analyses. R.S.E. provided theoretical input and developed analytic tools. All authors read and commented on the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Liliana M. Dávalos.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figures 1–8, Supplementary Tables 1–4, Supplementary References (PDF 879 kb)

Supplementary Data 1

Consensus datasets for the three extinction scenarios used in the DAISIE analyses. (XLSX 41 kb)

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Valente, L., Etienne, R. & Dávalos, L. Recent extinctions disturb path to equilibrium diversity in Caribbean bats. Nat Ecol Evol 1, 0026 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-016-0026

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