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Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends

Matters Arising to this article was published on 20 November 2023

The Original Article was published on 27 June 2022

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Fig. 1: Excess OWZ counts.
Fig. 2: Predicted versus actual excess OWZ counts.

Data availability

The raw ensemble data from the NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3, was obtained by correspondence with Gilbert Compo ( Files containing the OWZ counts and some other variables, processed from the raw ensemble data, can be downloaded at

Code availability

MATLAB scripts for analysing the data and producing the plots presented here can be downloaded from


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This research received support by the generosity of E. and W. Schmidt by recommendation of Schmidt Futures as part of its Virtual Earth System Research Institute (VESRI). Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory. I am grateful to G. Compo, L. Slivinski and C. McColl of NOAA for assistance in accessing the NOAA 20CR3 data and for helpful advice on an earlier draft of this comment. I thank S. Chand and his co-authors for their forbearance and cooperation in this exchange.

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Correspondence to Kerry Emanuel.

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Nature Climate Change thanks Michael Montgomery, Jill Trepanier and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Supplementary Figs. 1–6, Tables 1 and 2, and Discussion.

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Emanuel, K. Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2023).

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