This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
$209.00 per year
only $17.42 per issue
Rent or buy this article
Prices vary by article type
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
The raw ensemble data from the NOAA-CIRES Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3, was obtained by correspondence with Gilbert Compo (firstname.lastname@example.org). Files containing the OWZ counts and some other variables, processed from the raw ensemble data, can be downloaded at http://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/DataCodes/data_codes.zip.
MATLAB scripts for analysing the data and producing the plots presented here can be downloaded from http://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/DataCodes/data_codes.zip.
Chand, S. S. et al. Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 655–661 (2022).
Knutson, T. et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: part I: detection and attribution. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 100, 1987–2007 (2019).
Knutson, T. et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change assessment: part II: projected response to anthropogenic warming. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 101, E303–E322 (2020).
Slivinski, L. C. et al. Towards a more reliable historical reanalysis: improvements for version 3 of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 145, 2876–2908 (2019).
Tory, K. J., Chand, S. S., Dare, R. A. & McBride, J. L. The development and assessment of a model-, grid-, and basin-independent tropical cyclone detection scheme. J. Clim. 26, 5493–5507 (2013).
Tory, K. J., Chand, S. S., Dare, R. A. & McBride, J. L. An assessment of a model-, grid-, and basin-independent tropical cyclone detection scheme in selected CMIP3 global climate models. J. Clim. 26, 5508–5522 (2013).
Knapp, K. R., Kruk, M. C., Levinson, D. H., Diamond, H. J. & Neumann, C. J. The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS): unifying tropical cyclone best track data. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91, 363–376 (2010).
Emanuel, K. Tropical cyclone activity downscaled from NOAA-CIRES reanalysis, 1908–1958. J. Adv. Model Earth Syst. 2, 1 (2010).
This research received support by the generosity of E. and W. Schmidt by recommendation of Schmidt Futures as part of its Virtual Earth System Research Institute (VESRI). Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Laboratory. I am grateful to G. Compo, L. Slivinski and C. McColl of NOAA for assistance in accessing the NOAA 20CR3 data and for helpful advice on an earlier draft of this comment. I thank S. Chand and his co-authors for their forbearance and cooperation in this exchange.
The author declares no competing interests.
Peer review information
Nature Climate Change thanks Michael Montgomery, Jill Trepanier and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
About this article
Cite this article
Emanuel, K. Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01879-y