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Range shifts

Microclimate alters the picture

Nature Climate Change volume 13, pages 423–424 (2023)Cite this article

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The speed at which terrestrial organisms are shifting their ranges in response to climate is consistently lower than that predicted by models. However, the use of microclimate-based, rather than macroclimate-based, predictions virtually eliminates these discrepancies.

It has been known for a while that predictions of how fast species have to shift their ranges in response to climate change can be way off the mark. Now, research shows that large overestimations of the predictions of the range shifts of terrestrial plant species can be linked to a key factor: microclimate. While large-scale climate models predict drastic range shifts, the necessary shifts to track adequate climate conditions turn out to be much lower when microclimate is considered, and are in fact considerably closer to range shifts observed in nature. Writing in Nature Climate Change, Ilya Maclean and Regan Early1 report that whereas macroclimate models predict major range shifts with a median of 46.5 km in centroid, microclimate models only require localized shifts into favourable microclimates, over distances of generally less than 1 km.

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Fig. 1: The influence of microclimate.

References

  1. Maclean, I. M. D. & Early, R. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01650-3 (2023).

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  1. Research Group Plants and Ecosystems (PLECO), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium

    Jonas J. Lembrechts

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  1. Jonas J. Lembrechts
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Correspondence to Jonas J. Lembrechts.

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Lembrechts, J.J. Microclimate alters the picture. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 423–424 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01632-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01632-5

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