The speed at which terrestrial organisms are shifting their ranges in response to climate is consistently lower than that predicted by models. However, the use of microclimate-based, rather than macroclimate-based, predictions virtually eliminates these discrepancies.
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Lembrechts, J.J. Microclimate alters the picture. Nat. Clim. Chang. 13, 423–424 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01632-5