Following a complete cessation of anthropogenic emissions, global warming will continue before cooling. We modelled this zero-emissions scenario in the context of realistic emissions pathways and revealed an existing commitment to temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming thresholds half a decade before these targets would have otherwise been reached.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 per month
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 print issues and online access
$209.00 per year
only $17.42 per issue
Rent or buy this article
Get just this article for as long as you need it
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
IPCC. Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021). The most up-to-date IPCC projections of climate change.
Jones, C. D. et al. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions. Geosci. Model Dev. 12, 4375–4385 (2019). A multi-model study of the climate response to a cessation of CO2.
Forster, P. et al. in Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 1–204 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021). The most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, combining multiple lines of evidence and a full assessment of the literature.
Riahi, K. et al. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 153–168 (2017). A research article that presents widely used anthropogenic emissions pathways.
Morice, C. P. et al. An updated assessment of near-surface temperature change from 1850: the HadCRUT5 data set. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 126, e2019JD032361 (2020). A research article that presents a combined sea surface and air temperature historical data set since 1850.
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This is a summary of: Dvorak, M. T. et al. Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01372-y (2022).
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
A geophysical commitment to warming over 1.5 °C by 2029 after cessation of emissions. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 512–513 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01375-9