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A geophysical commitment to warming over 1.5 °C by 2029 after cessation of emissions

Following a complete cessation of anthropogenic emissions, global warming will continue before cooling. We modelled this zero-emissions scenario in the context of realistic emissions pathways and revealed an existing commitment to temporarily exceeding 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming thresholds half a decade before these targets would have otherwise been reached.

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Fig. 1: Committed warming following the cessation of emissions.


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This is a summary of: Dvorak, M. T. et al. Estimating the timing of geophysical commitment to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of global warming. Nat. Clim. Change (2022).

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A geophysical commitment to warming over 1.5 °C by 2029 after cessation of emissions. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 512–513 (2022).

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