Abstract
Hydrofluorocarbon emissions have increased rapidly and are managed by the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. Yet the current ambition is not consistent with the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement goal. Here, we draw on the Montreal Protocol start-and-strengthen approach to show that accelerated phase-down under the Kigali Amendment could result in additional reductions of 72% in 2050, increasing chances of staying below 1.5 °C throughout this century.
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Data availability
Global HFC emissions data used in the baseline and alternative scenarios by MP party groups are available at: https://github.com/ppurohit76/Accelerating-HFC-phase-down-under-the-Kigali-Amendment. Source data are provided with this paper.
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All authors contributed to parts of the research and analysis. P.P., N.B.-P. and Z.K. conceived of and coordinated the writing of the paper. P.P. and L.H.-I. performed the analysis and P.P. developed the initial draft of the paper. All authors contributed to the interpretation and analysis of the results as well as writing the paper.
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Nature Climate Change thanks Won Young Park, Yangyang Xu and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
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Extended data
Extended Data Fig. 1 Major milestones in the history of stratospheric ozone depletion.
This timeline highlights milestones related to the history of ozone depletion. Events represent the occurrence of important scientific findings, the completion of international scientific assessments, and milestones of the Montreal Protocol. Figure reproduced from ref. 6 [public domain].
Supplementary information
Supplementary Information
Supplementary Tables 1 and 2.
Source data
Source Data Fig. 2
HFC emissions in baseline and alternative scenarios.
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Purohit, P., Borgford-Parnell, N., Klimont, Z. et al. Achieving Paris climate goals calls for increasing ambition of the Kigali Amendment. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 339–342 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01310-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01310-y
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