Hydrofluorocarbon emissions have increased rapidly and are managed by the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. Yet the current ambition is not consistent with the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement goal. Here, we draw on the Montreal Protocol start-and-strengthen approach to show that accelerated phase-down under the Kigali Amendment could result in additional reductions of 72% in 2050, increasing chances of staying below 1.5 °C throughout this century.
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Global HFC emissions data used in the baseline and alternative scenarios by MP party groups are available at: https://github.com/ppurohit76/Accelerating-HFC-phase-down-under-the-Kigali-Amendment. Source data are provided with this paper.
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The authors declare no competing interests.
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Nature Climate Change thanks Won Young Park, Yangyang Xu and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
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This timeline highlights milestones related to the history of ozone depletion. Events represent the occurrence of important scientific findings, the completion of international scientific assessments, and milestones of the Montreal Protocol. Figure reproduced from ref. 6 [public domain].
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Purohit, P., Borgford-Parnell, N., Klimont, Z. et al. Achieving Paris climate goals calls for increasing ambition of the Kigali Amendment. Nat. Clim. Chang. 12, 339–342 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01310-y
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