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MITIGATION PATHWAY

The question of overshoot

Nature Climate Change volume 11, pages 1021–1022 (2021)Cite this article

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Most emissions scenarios in line with the Paris Agreement have shown a large amount of net-negative CO2 emissions during the second half of this century. A new set of scenarios expands this picture.

Can we meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement? That is one type of question that can be analysed using integrated assessment models (IAMs). These models are used to develop internally consistent scenarios for the integrated energy, land, economy and climate systems, and the insights obtained can be used to inform decisions on climate targets and policies. Hence, the assumptions used in IAMs are central for understanding how temperature goals can be achieved. In the most recent IPCC assessment of IAM scenarios1, most of the scenarios led to a warming that had a temporary overshoot above the level reached by the end of the century. In two Articles published in Nature Climate Change, Keywan Riahi and colleagues2 and Laurent Drouet and colleagues3 use different assumptions for how the temperature goals are implemented in the IAMs. This changes the view on the timing of emission reductions, including the need for negative emissions, and lets the researchers quantify the consequences of those temperature overshoots.

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Fig. 1: Three examples of the types of pathways leading to the same cumulative CO2 emissions in 2100.

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Acknowledgements

This publication was funded by The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research through the Mistra Carbon Exit program. C. Azar, I. Gunnarsson and J. Morfeldt are acknowledged for providing useful comments.

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  1. Division of Physical Resource Theory, Department of Space Earth, and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden

    Daniel J. A. Johansson

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Correspondence to Daniel J. A. Johansson.

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Johansson, D.J.A. The question of overshoot. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 1021–1022 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01229-w

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