Abstract
Water-table drawdown across peatlands increases carbon dioxide (CO2) and reduces methane (CH4) emissions. The net climatic effect remains unclear. Based on global observations from 130 sites, we found a positive (warming) net climate effect of water-table drawdown. Using a machine-learning-based upscaling approach, we predict that peatland water-table drawdown driven by climate drying and human activities will increase CO2 emissions by 1.13 (95% interval: 0.88–1.50) Gt yr−1 and reduce CH4 by 0.26 (0.14–0.52) GtCO2-eq yr−1, resulting in a net increase of greenhouse gas of 0.86 (0.36–1.36) GtCO2-eq yr−1 by the end of the twenty-first century under the RCP8.5 climate scenario. This drops to 0.73 (0.2–1.2) GtCO2-eq yr−1 under RCP2.6. Our results point to an urgent need to preserve pristine and rehabilitate drained peatlands to decelerate the positive feedback among water-table drawdown, increased greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming.
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Data availability
Source datasets and global maps generated in this study are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13139906.v342.
Code availability
Calculations were conducted through Python 3.7.3, R 3.6.2 and ferret 6.72. Data processing code and code used to generate figures are provided through https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13139906.v342.
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Acknowledgements
Y.H., P.C., D.Z., C.Q. and D.S.G. received support from the European Research Council Synergy project SyG-2013-610028 IMBALANCE-P and Y.H., P.C., D.Z., C.Q., D.S.G., B.G. and D.M. from the ANR CLAND Convergence Institute (ANR-16-CONV-0003).
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Y.H., P.C. and L.Q. designed this study. Y.H., L.Q. and I.D.G. contributed the data. Y.H., P.C., Y.L., D.Z., D.M. and L.Q. discussed analysis methods. Y.H. conducted the analysis and drafted the manuscript. All authors discussed the results and contributed to writing the manuscript.
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Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Dan Charman, Connor Nolan, Debjani Sihi and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
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Supplementary discussion, Figs. 1–22, Tables 1–8 and references.
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Huang, Y., Ciais, P., Luo, Y. et al. Tradeoff of CO2 and CH4 emissions from global peatlands under water-table drawdown. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 618–622 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01059-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01059-w
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