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MITIGATION SCENARIOS

Drivers of photovoltaic uncertainty

Nature Climate Change volume 11, pages 184–185 (2021)Cite this article

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Energy systems scenarios project a wide range of uncertainty in solar photovoltaic capacity, often thought to stem from techno-economic assumptions. Now research shows that the underlying sources of this uncertainty might be different than expected.

To meet the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions should decline to net zero by 2050. With announcements in late 2020, 127 countries, including the top emitters, are considering or have committed to net-zero targets1. There is no silver bullet for climate change mitigation, but renewable energy is expected to be important for net-zero targets. But the potential contribution of renewables is not fully known, and projections of the capacity of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology exhibit particularly large uncertainty. Writing in Nature Climate Change, Marc Jaxa-Rozen and Evelina Trutnevyte2 dive into the sources of this uncertainty. They find it is not the modelling or techno-economic assumptions that primarily drive it, but rather who created these scenarios, and when and how. These findings have wide implications not only for mitigation policies, but also for the use of model-based scenarios in the science–policy interface.

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Fig. 1: Solar PV generation in IPCC scenarios during 2030–2050 and corresponding emissions.

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Affiliations

  1. Climate Interactive, Washington DC, USA

    Sibel Eker

  2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

    Sibel Eker

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  1. Sibel Eker
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Correspondence to Sibel Eker.

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Eker, S. Drivers of photovoltaic uncertainty. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 184–185 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01002-z

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