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  • Matters Arising
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Permafrost thaw and northern development

Nature Climate Change volume 10, pages 722–723 (2020)Cite this article

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Matters Arising to this article was published on 29 July 2020

The Original Article was published on 29 October 2019

arising from B. Teufel and L. Sushama Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0614-6 (2019)

Increases in air temperature have resulted in warming and thawing of permafrost1 with effects on infrastructure, mass movements, hydrology and carbon stores, and further changes are anticipated given climate projections. Teufel and Sushama2 project abrupt soil drainage and drying in permafrost regions on the basis of an arbitrary model assumption that invokes drainage of soil water as soon as permafrost in the uppermost layer of the ground thaws, regardless of whether the underlying ground is frozen. The results are a direct consequence of the process representation in the model land surface scheme: there is no field or historical evidence indicating that abrupt, broad-scale transitions of the soil environment above permafrost due to thawing, as simulated, have occurred. The assertion that drying of the soil will provoke changes to soil bearing capacity that will have deleterious consequences for infrastructure is unfounded and may mislead policymakers concerned with northern development.

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No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.

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Acknowledgements

We thank S. Wolfe for helpful comments on a draft of the manuscript. This Matters Arising is NRCan contribution number 20190500.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geological Survey of Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    H. B. O’Neill, C. R. Burn, M. I. Bunn, A.-M. LeBlanc, P. D. Morse & S. L. Smith

  2. Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    C. R. Burn

  3. Centre d’études nordiques (CEN), Université Laval, Quebec, Quebec, Canada

    M. Allard

  4. BGC Engineering Inc., Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

    L. U. Arenson

  5. Environment and Natural Resources, Government of Northwest Territories, Yellowknife, Northwest Territories, Canada

    R. F. Connon & S. A. Kokelj

  6. Northwest Territories Geological Survey, Yellowknife, Northern Territories, Canada

    S. V. Kokelj

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  1. H. B. O’Neill
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All authors contributed to the content of this Matters Arising. H.B.O. and C.R.B. drafted the text. All authors contributed to editing and revising the document.

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Correspondence to H. B. O’Neill.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Jan Hjort and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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O’Neill, H.B., Burn, C.R., Allard, M. et al. Permafrost thaw and northern development. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 722–723 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0862-5

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