Glob. Environ. Change 62, 102070 (2020).

Public engagement on climate change is difficult because people do not directly experience long-term statistical changes in global temperatures. Instead, people experience consequences of climate change, such as extreme weather events. Although experiences of extreme weather can impact attitudes toward climate change, it is not clear how the science of extreme event attribution (EEA) supporting this connection is perceived.

Shannon Osaka from the University of Oxford and Rob Bellamy from the University of Manchester conducted interviews and focus groups with key stakeholders about the 2011–2017 California drought. Journalists reported that it has become normal to link extreme weather and climate change, but expressed concern over the challenge of simplifying the narrative for the public while also conveying uncertainty. When shown media articles on differing EEA studies about the drought, neither agriculturalists nor environmentalists found the studies convincing. However, they interpreted the uncertain EEA evidence in ways that confirmed their prior beliefs about whether climate change is natural or human-caused. These results suggest that while EEA has value for the scientific community, inherent uncertainty renders it less useful as a tool for public communication.