Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from national climate legislation

Nature Climate Change volume 10, pages 750–756 (2020)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

The international response to climate change has been inadequate, but not zero. There are 1,800 climate change laws worldwide. We use panel data on legislative activity in 133 countries over the period 1999–2016 to identify statistically the short-term and long-term impact of climate legislation. Each new law reduces annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 0.78% nationally in the short term (during the first three years) and by 1.79% in the long term (beyond three years). The results are driven by parliamentary acts and by countries with a strong rule of law. In 2016, current climate laws were associated with an annual reduction in global CO2 emissions of 5.9 GtCO2, more than the US CO2 output that year. Cumulative CO2 emissions savings from 1999 to 2016 amount to 38 GtCO2, or one year’s worth of global CO2 output. The impact on other greenhouse gases is much lower.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Climate laws.
Fig. 2: Emissions path with and without laws.
Fig. 3: Change in emissions by gases and region (1999–2016).

Similar content being viewed by others

Data availability

All data used in this study are in the public domain as follows. Climate legislation data are from Climate Change Laws of the World, available at https://climate-laws.org/. Data on the rule of law are from the Worldwide Governance Indicators, available at www.govindicators.org and https://databank.worldbank.org/source/worldwide-governance-indicators. Economic data are from World Bank’s World Development Indicators database, available at https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Data on political systems are from the Database of Political Institutions 2017, available at https://publications.iadb.org/en/database-political-institutions-2017-dpi2017. Temperature data come from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal, available at https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/download-data. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The full computer code is available on GitHub (https://github.com/)45. The analysis was carried out using STATA.

References

  1. Rogelj, J. et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 7609–7631 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Emissions Gap Report 2019 (UNEP, 2019).

  3. Climate Change Laws of the World (Grantham Research Institute, accessed May 2020); https://climate-laws.org/

  4. Eskander, S., Fankhauser, S. & Setzer, J. Lessons from Global Trends in Climate Change Legislation and Litigation Environmental and Energy Policy Paper (NBER, 2020).

  5. Averchenkova, A. & Bassi, S. Beyond the Targets: Assessing the Political Credibility of Pledges for the Paris Agreement (Grantham Research Institute, 2016).

  6. Dubash, N. K., Hagemann, M., Hoehne, N. & Upadhyaya, P. Developments in national climate change mitigation legislation and strategy. Clim. Policy 13, 649–664 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Iacobuta, G., Dubash, N. K., Upadhyaya, P., Deribe, M. & Hoehne, N. National climate change mitigation legislation, strategy and targets: a global update. Clim. Policy 18, 1114–1132 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Townshend, T. et al. How national legislation can help to solve climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 430–432 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Townshend, T. et al. Legislating climate change at the national level. Environment 53, 5–16 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Fankhauser, S., Gennaioli, C. & Collins, M. Do international factors influence the passage of climate change legislation? Clim. Policy 16, 318–331 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Fankhauser, S., Gennaioli, C. & Collins, M. The political economy of passing climate change legislation: evidence from a survey. Glob. Environ. Change 35, 52–61 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Clare, A., Fankhauser, S. & Gennaioli, C. in Trends in Climate Change Legislation (eds Averchenkova, A., Fankhauser, S. & Nachmany, M.) Ch. 2 (Elgar, 2017).

  13. Averchenkova, A., Fankhauser, S. & Nachmany, M. (eds) Trends in Climate Change Legislation (Elgar, 2017).

  14. Bulkeley, H. et al. Transnational Climate Change Governance (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

  15. Falkner, R. The Handbook of Global Climate and Environment Policy (Wiley-Blackwell, 2013).

  16. Jordan, A., Huitema, D., Van Asselt, H. and Forster, J. Governing Climate Change: Polycentricity in Action? (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2018).

  17. Quéré, L. et al. Drivers of declining CO2 emissions in 18 developed economies. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 213–217 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Congleton, R. Political institutions and pollution control. Rev. Econ. Stat. 74, 412–421 (1992).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Hahn, R. The political economy of environmental regulation: towards a unifying framework. Public Choice 65, 21–47 (1990).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Neumayer, E. Are left-wing party strength and corporatism good for the environment? Evidence from panel analysis of air pollution in OECD countries. Ecol. Econ. 45, 203–220 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Oates, W. & Portney, P. in Handbook of Environmental Economics Vol. 1 (eds Mäler, K. G. & Vincent, J. R.) Ch. 8 (North-Holland/Elsevier, 2003).

  22. Rafaty, R. Perceptions of corruption, political distrust, and the weakening of climate policy. Glob. Environ. Polit. 18, 106–129 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Fischer, F. & Miller, G. J. Handbook of Public Policy Analysis: Theory, Politics, and Methods (Routledge, 2017).

  24. Mickwitz, P. A framework for evaluating environmental policy instruments: context and key concepts. Evaluation 9, 415–436 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Vedung, E. Public Policy and Program Evaluation (Routledge, 2017).

  26. Fankhauser, S. A. A. & Finnegan, J. The UK Climate Change Act: A 10-Year Assessment (Grantham Research Institute, 2018).

  27. Lorenzoni, I. & Benson, D. Radical institutional change in environmental governance: explaining the origins of the UK Climate Change Act 2008 through discursive and streams perspectives. Glob. Environ. Change 29, 10–21 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Lockwood, M. The political sustainability of climate policy: the case of the UK Climate Change Act. Glob. Environ. Change 23, 1339–1348 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Torney, D. Climate laws in small European states: symbolic legislation and limits of diffusion in Ireland and Finland. Env. Polit. 28, 1124–1144 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Bernauer, T. & Koubi, V. Effects of political institutions on air quality. Ecol. Econ. 68, 1355–1365 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Fredriksson, P. G., Vollebergh, H. R. & Dijkgraaf, E. Corruption and energy efficiency in OECD countries: theory and evidence. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 47, 207–231 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Fredriksson, P. G., Neumayer, E., Damania, R. & Gates, S. Environmentalism, democracy, and pollution control. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 49, 343–365 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Baettig, M. B. & Bernauer, T. National institutions and global public goods: are democracies more cooperative in climate change policy? Int. Organ. 63, 281–308 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Lachapelle, E. & Paterson, M. Drivers of national climate policy. Clim. Policy 13, 547–571 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Burgess, R., Hansen, M., Olken, B. A., Potapov, P. & Sieber, S. The political economy of deforestation in the tropics. Q. J. Econ. 127, 1707–1754 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Hochstetler, K. Tracking presidents and policies: environmental politics from Lula to Dilma. Policy Stud. 38, 262–276 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Kaufman, D., Kraay, A. & Mastruzzi, M. The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues (World Bank, 2010).

  38. Stern, D. I. The rise and fall of the environmental Kuznets curve. World Dev. 32, 1419–1439 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Doda, B. Evidence on business cycles and emissions. J. Macroecon. 40, 214–227 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (WMO, 2018).

  41. Benson, D. & Lorenzoni, I. Examining the scope for national lesson? Drawing on climate governance. Polit. Q. 85, 202–211 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Dechezleprêtre, A. & Sato, M. The impacts of environmental regulations on competitiveness. Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy 11, 183–206 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Hodrick, R. J. & Prescott, E. C. Postwar US business cycles: an empirical investigation. J. Money. Credit. Bank. 29, 1–16 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Cruz, C., Keefer, P. & Scartascini, C. Database of Political Institutions 2017 (Inter-American Development Bank, 2018).

  45. Eskander, S. & Fankhauser, S. Data and code used for the 2020 Nature Climate Change paper “Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions by National Climate Legislation”. Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3830922 (2020).

Download references

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge financial support from the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment and from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through its support of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP). We are grateful to A. Brucal, B. Doda, R. Falkner, J. Finnegan, T. Garg, C. Gennaioli, B. Gilbert, M. Guenther, D. McCoy, A. Saussay and H. Schweiger for their insights and feedback.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Kingston University London, Surrey, UK

    Shaikh M. S. U. Eskander

  2. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK

    Shaikh M. S. U. Eskander & Sam Fankhauser

Authors
  1. Shaikh M. S. U. Eskander
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Sam Fankhauser
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

The authors have contributed equally to the study. The research question, study design, model development and identification strategy were developed jointly. S.M.S.U.E. took primary responsibility for data manipulation and S.F. led on drafting.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shaikh M. S. U. Eskander.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Navroz Dubash and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Tables 1–3.

Source data

Source Data Fig. 1

Excel file with the data for Fig. 1a and b (one workbook each).

Source Data Fig. 2

Excel file with the data for Fig. 2 (emissions with and without laws).

Source Data Fig. 3

Excel file with the data for Fig. 3 (change in emissions by gas and region).

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Eskander, S.M.S.U., Fankhauser, S. Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from national climate legislation. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 750–756 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0831-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0831-z

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing