Projections using our best estimate of m = 0.077 MJ kg−1 d−1 are contrasted against projections using the upper boundary estimate identified in Supplementary Fig. 3, m = 0.090 MJ kg−1 d−1. a, Demographic impact hindcasts: as in Fig. 3, but now for m = 0.090 MJ kg−1 d−1; b, Demographic impact forecasts: as in Fig. 4, but now for m = 0.090 MJ kg−1 d−1; c, Differences between the projected crossings of the first (−20%) impact threshold when using m = 0.090 MJ kg−1 d−1 instead of m = 0.077 MJ kg−1 d−1 (that is, the difference between panel b & Fig. 4). Magenta: cub recruitment; blue: adult male survival; red: adult female survival. Crosses indicate cases where no impacts are predicted within the modelled timeframe using either value of m; asterisks mark cases where impacts occur with m = 0.090 MJ kg−1 d−1 but not with m = 0.077 MJ kg−1 d−1, with the bar showing the minimum difference between the two scenarios in these cases. Green background: SIE subpopulations; red background: DIE subpopulations; blue background: CIE subpopulations.