The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a slow-moving tropical mode that produces a planetary-scale envelope of convective storms. By exciting Rossby waves, the MJO creates teleconnections with far-reaching impacts on extratropical circulation and weather. Although recent studies have investigated the response of the MJO to anthropogenic warming, not much is known about potential changes in its teleconnections. Here, we show that the MJO teleconnection pattern in boreal winter will likely extend further eastward over the North Pacific. This is primarily due to an eastward shift in the exit region of the subtropical jet, to which the teleconnection pattern is anchored, and assisted by an eastward extension of the MJO itself. The eastward-extended teleconnection enables the MJO to have a greater impact downstream on the Northeast Pacific and North American west coast. Over California specifically, the multi-model mean projects a 54% increase in MJO-induced precipitation variability by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.
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The AMIP and CMIP outputs used in this study can be obtained from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 archives at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/. The NOAA interpolated outgoing longwave radiation dataset is available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.interp_OLR.html. The NCEP-DOE reanalysis dataset is publicly available at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis2.html. The ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis dataset is available at https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5.
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We thank M. Watanabe and M. Hayashi for providing the LBM. This work was supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) funding from Berkeley Lab, provided by the Director, Office of Science, of the U.S. Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231 (to D.Y. and W.Z.); the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research, Climate and Environmental Sciences Division, Regional & Global Climate Modeling Program under Award DE-AC02-05CH11231 (to D.Y.); the National Institute of Food and Agriculture under the project CA-D-LAW-2462-RR (to D.Y.); the Packard Fellowship for Science and Engineering (to D. Y.); the National Science Foundation (AGS 1637450 to S.P.X.) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41805051 to J.M.).
The authors declare no competing interests.
Peer review information: Nature Climate Change thanks Hien Bui, Frederic Vitart and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
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Zhou, W., Yang, D., Xie, SP. et al. Amplified Madden–Julian oscillation impacts in the Pacific–North America region. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 654–660 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0814-0
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