a, Annual mean daily emissions in the period 1970–2019 (black line), updated from the Global Carbon Project1,3 (Methods), with uncertainty of ±5% (±1σ; grey shading). The red line shows the daily emissions up to end of April 2020 estimated here. b, Daily CO2 emissions in 2020 (red line, as in a) based on the CI and corresponding change in activity for each CI level (Fig. 2) and the uncertainty (red shading; Table 2). Daily emissions in 2020 are smoothed with a 7-d box filter to account for the transition between confinement levels.