Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate

Nature Climate Change volume 10, pages 378–379 (2020)Cite this article

Subjects

To the Editor — Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the long-term response of global mean surface temperature (GMST) to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It is poorly constrained with a ‘likely’ range of 1.5–4.5 °C, which has remained nearly unchanged since the Charney report 40 years ago1. Ten in twenty-seven of the available climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) have an ECS higher than the upper end of this range, in contrast to two in twenty-eight CMIP5 models2,3. For example, the ECS in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2)4 — a CMIP6 model — is 5.3 °C (ref. 5). Determining whether this high ECS is realistic is paramount for estimating future climate and crafting effective policies and adaptation plans. Without a historical benchmark to test the ECS of CMIP6 models against, they can be evaluated against past warm periods, such as the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO), a period of sustained high GMST ~53–50 mya6,7.

This is a preview of subscription content

Access options

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

from$8.99

Rent or Buy

All prices are NET prices.

Fig. 1: Model-data comparison of GMST and MTG.

Data availability

CESM1 simulation data are available in the Zenodo repository at https://zenodo.org/record/2642536#.Xo7xa5NKjyI. CESM2 data can be requested from J.Z.

Code availability

CESM2 model code is available at https://github.com/ESCOMP/CESM/releases/tag/release-cesm2.1.1. CESM1 and CCSM4 model code is available at https://svn-ccsm-models.cgd.ucar.edu/cesm1/release_tags/cesm1_2_2_1/.

References

  1. 1.

    Charney, J. G. et al. Carbon Dioxide and Climate: a Scientific Assessment (National Academy of Sciences, 1979).

  2. 2.

    Nat. Clim. Change 9, 727 (2019).

  3. 3.

    Zelinka, M. D. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 47, e2019GL085782 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. 4.

    Danabasoglu, G. et al. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy. 12, e2019MS001916 (2020).

    Google Scholar 

  5. 5.

    Gettelman, A. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett. 46, 8329–8337 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. 6.

    Lunt, D. J. et al. Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 889–901 (2017).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  7. 7.

    Hollis, C. J. et al. Geosci. Model Dev. 12, 3149–3206 (2019).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  8. 8.

    Anagnostou, E. et al. Nature 533, 380–380 (2016).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  9. 9.

    Zhu, J., Poulsen, C. J. & Tierney, J. E. Sci. Adv. 5, eaax1874 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. 10.

    Berry, J. & Bjorkman, O. Annu. Rev. Plant Physio. 31, 491–543 (1980).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. 11.

    Wing, S. L. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 18627 (2009).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  12. 12.

    Hurrell, J. W. et al. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 94, 1339–1360 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. 13.

    Gent, P. R. et al. J. Climate 24, 4973–4991 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. 14.

    Gettelman, A., Kay, J. E. & Shell, K. M. J. Climate 25, 1453–1469 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. 15.

    Fasullo, J. T. Climate Model Assessment Tool CMIP6 Analysis (CMAT-CMIP6) (2020); http://webext.cgd.ucar.edu/Multi-Case/CMAT/CMATv1_CMIP6/index.html

  16. 16.

    Caballero, R. & Huber, M. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 14162–14167 (2013).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Heising-Simons Foundation (grant nos. 2016-05 and 2016-12) and National Science Foundation (NSF; grant no. 2002397) to C.J.P. We acknowledge the computational resources provided by the CESM Paleoclimate Working Group for high-performance computing support from Cheyenne (https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/user-support/acknowledging-ncarcisl) provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s CISL, sponsored by NSF. The CESM project is supported primarily by the NSF. This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Jiang Zhu & Christopher J. Poulsen

  2. Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    Bette L. Otto-Bliesner

Authors
  1. Jiang Zhu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Christopher J. Poulsen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jiang Zhu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Zhu, J., Poulsen, C.J. & Otto-Bliesner, B.L. High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 378–379 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0764-6

Download citation

Further reading

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing