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High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate

Nature Climate Change volume 10, pages 378–379 (2020)Cite this article

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To the Editor — Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the long-term response of global mean surface temperature (GMST) to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. It is poorly constrained with a ‘likely’ range of 1.5–4.5 °C, which has remained nearly unchanged since the Charney report 40 years ago1. Ten in twenty-seven of the available climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) have an ECS higher than the upper end of this range, in contrast to two in twenty-eight CMIP5 models2,3. For example, the ECS in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2)4 — a CMIP6 model — is 5.3 °C (ref. 5). Determining whether this high ECS is realistic is paramount for estimating future climate and crafting effective policies and adaptation plans. Without a historical benchmark to test the ECS of CMIP6 models against, they can be evaluated against past warm periods, such as the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO), a period of sustained high GMST ~53–50 mya6,7.

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Fig. 1: Model-data comparison of GMST and MTG.

Data availability

CESM1 simulation data are available in the Zenodo repository at https://zenodo.org/record/2642536#.Xo7xa5NKjyI. CESM2 data can be requested from J.Z.

Code availability

CESM2 model code is available at https://github.com/ESCOMP/CESM/releases/tag/release-cesm2.1.1. CESM1 and CCSM4 model code is available at https://svn-ccsm-models.cgd.ucar.edu/cesm1/release_tags/cesm1_2_2_1/.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Heising-Simons Foundation (grant nos. 2016-05 and 2016-12) and National Science Foundation (NSF; grant no. 2002397) to C.J.P. We acknowledge the computational resources provided by the CESM Paleoclimate Working Group for high-performance computing support from Cheyenne (https://www2.cisl.ucar.edu/user-support/acknowledging-ncarcisl) provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s CISL, sponsored by NSF. The CESM project is supported primarily by the NSF. This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement no. 1852977.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Jiang Zhu & Christopher J. Poulsen

  2. Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    Bette L. Otto-Bliesner

Authors
  1. Jiang Zhu
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  2. Christopher J. Poulsen
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  3. Bette L. Otto-Bliesner
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Correspondence to Jiang Zhu.

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Zhu, J., Poulsen, C.J. & Otto-Bliesner, B.L. High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 378–379 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0764-6

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