Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Comment
  • Published:

A fiery wake-up call for climate science

Nature Climate Change volume 10, pages 175–177 (2020)Cite this article

Subjects

To improve climate resilience for extreme fire events, researchers need to translate modelling uncertainties into useful guidance and be wary of overconfidence. If Earth system models do not capture the severity of recent Australian wildfires, development is urgently needed to assess whether we are underestimating fire risk.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Fig. 1: Observed and projection of historical and future climate in New South Wales, Australia.

References

  1. Giglio, L., Randerson, J. T. & van der Werf, G. R. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 118, 317–328 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. University of Sydney News (8 January 2020); https://go.nature.com/3aBhTyu

  3. Eggleton, M. National Geographic (15 November 2019); https://go.nature.com/38MEJSl

  4. Rice, D. USA Today (8 January 2020); https://go.nature.com/36xAvfA

  5. Mann, M. The Guardian (1 January 2020); https://go.nature.com/30WmreF

  6. Law, T. Time (7 January 2020); https://go.nature.com/2RwgBxx

  7. Abram, N. Scientific American Blog Network https://go.nature.com/3aNFI6o (2019).

  8. Forkel, M. et al. Biogeosciences 16, 57–76 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Sippel, S., Meinshausen, N., Fischer, E. M., Székely, E. & Knutti, R. Nat. Clim. Change 10, 35–41 (2020).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Kirchmeier-Young, M. C., Zwiers, F. W., Gillett, N. P. & Cannon, A. J. Climatic Change 144, 365–379 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Van Wagner, C. E. & Canadian Forestry Service. Development and Structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. Forestry Technical Report 35 (Canadian Forestry Service, 1987).

  12. Clarke, H. & Evans, J. P. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 136, 513–527 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Hoffmann, W. A. et al. Austr. Ecol. 37, 634–643 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Shuman, J. K. et al. Environ. Res. Lett. 12, 035003 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Thonicke, K. et al. Biogeosciences 7, 1991–2011 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  16. Hantson, S. Biogeosciences 13, 3359–3375 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Hantson, S. et al. Geosci. Model Dev. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-261 (2020).

  18. Liu, Y., Goodrick, S. & Heilman, W. For. Ecol. Manag. 317, 80–96 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Arora, V. K. et al. Biogeosci. Discuss. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-473 (2019).

  20. Norris, J., Chen, G. & Neelin, J. D. J. Clim. 32, 5397–5416 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Scheiter, S., Moncrieff, G. R., Pfeiffer, M. & Higgins, S. I. Biogeosci. Discuss. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-415 (2019).

  22. Staver, A. C., Archibald, S. & Levin, S. A. Science 334, 230–232 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. Forkel, M. et al. Environ. Res. Commun. 1, 051005 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Whitley, R. et al. Biogeosciences 14, 4711–4732 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Dahlin, K. M., Fisher, R. A. & Lawrence, P. J. Biogeosciences 12, 5061–5074 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. Dahlin, K. M., Ponte, D. D., Setlock, E. & Nagelkirk, R. Ecography https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02443 (2017).

  27. Williams, M., Law, B. E., Anthoni, P. M. & Unsworth, M. H. Tree Physiol. 21, 287–298 (2001).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. Kauwe, M. G. D. et al. Biogeosciences 12, 7503–7518 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Whitley, R. et al. Biogeosciences 13, 3245–3265 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Teckentrup, L. et al. Biogeosciences 16, 3883–3910 (2019).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Rabin, S. S. et al. Geosci. Model Dev. 10, 1175–1197 (2017).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  32. Neubauer, D. et al. HAMMOZ-Consortium MPI-ESM1.2-HAM model output prepared for CMIP6. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5016 (2019).

  33. Seferian, R. CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-ESM2-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.1391 (2018).

  34. EC-Earth Consortium (EC-Earth). EC-Earth-Consortium EC-Earth3-Veg model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.727 (2019).

  35. Danabasoglu, G. NCAR CESM2 model output prepared for CMIP6 ScenarioMIP. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7768 (2019).

  36. Liu, Y. Y. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 470–474 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Ge, Y., Avitabile, V., Heuvelink, G. B. M., Wang, J. & Herold, M. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. 31, 13–24 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. Climate change — trends and extremes. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change (accessed 8 January 2020).

Download references

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, with specific contributions from MPI32, CNRM33, ECMWF34 and NCAR35. B.M.S. is supported by the French National Research Agency, ANR-17-MPGA-0016.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CERFACS, Toulouse, France

    Benjamin M. Sanderson & Rosie A. Fisher

  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA

    Benjamin M. Sanderson

Authors
  1. Benjamin M. Sanderson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Rosie A. Fisher
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Benjamin M. Sanderson.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figs. 1–3

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sanderson, B.M., Fisher, R.A. A fiery wake-up call for climate science. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 175–177 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0707-2

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0707-2

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing