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The future of Arctic sea-ice biogeochemistry and ice-associated ecosystems

Nature Climate Change volume 10, pages 983–992 (2020)Cite this article

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Abstract

The Arctic sea-ice-scape is rapidly transforming. Increasing light penetration will initiate earlier seasonal primary production. This earlier growing season may be accompanied by an increase in ice algae and phytoplankton biomass, augmenting the emission of dimethylsulfide and capture of carbon dioxide. Secondary production may also increase on the shelves, although the loss of sea ice exacerbates the demise of sea-ice fauna, endemic fish and megafauna. Sea-ice loss may also deliver more methane to the atmosphere, but warmer ice may release fewer halogens, resulting in fewer ozone depletion events. The net changes in carbon drawdown are still highly uncertain. Despite large uncertainties in these assessments, we expect disruptive changes that warrant intensified long-term observations and modelling efforts.

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Fig. 1: Schematic of seasonal sea-ice biogeochemical processes in the Arctic Ocean.
Fig. 2: Past and predicted changes in sea-ice physical characteristics along latitudes.
Fig. 3: Map of the Arctic Ocean.
Fig. 4: Future expectations of changes in the sea-ice biogeochemical system in the Arctic.

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Acknowledgements

This Perspective is a product of the Biogeochemical Exchange Processes at Sea-Ice Interfaces (BEPSII) research community. This manuscript was first conceived at the Arctic Sea-Ice Change foresight workshop held in Davos, Switzerland, in June 2018 and is supported by the Euromarine Network.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Delphine Lannuzel

  2. Finnish Environment Institute, Marine Research Centre, Helsinki, Finland

    Letizia Tedesco & Hermanni Kaartokallio

  3. Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands

    Maria van Leeuwe & Jacqueline Stefels

  4. Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway

    Karley Campbell

  5. Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven, Germany

    Hauke Flores, Giulia Castellani, Ellen Damm & Ilka Peeken

  6. Unité d’océanographie chimique, FOCUS, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium

    Bruno Delille, Marie Kotovitch & Fanny Van der Linden

  7. Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada

    Lisa Miller, Kristina Brown & Nadja Steiner

  8. Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway

    Philipp Assmy, Agneta Fransson & Sébastien Moreau

  9. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA

    Jeff Bowman

  10. Institute of Marine Research, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway

    Melissa Chierici & Elizabeth Jones

  11. University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway

    Melissa Chierici

  12. Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

    Odile Crabeck

  13. Department of Geography, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

    Brent Else

  14. Department of Geosciences, Environment and Society, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium

    François Fripiat

  15. Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

    Nicolas-Xavier Geilfus

  16. Laboratoire de Glaciologie, DGES, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium

    Caroline Jacques, Marie Kotovitch, Jean-Louis Tison & Fanny Van der Linden

  17. Australian Antarctic Division, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Klaus Meiners

  18. Hokkaido University, Hakodate, Hokkaido, Japan

    Daiki Nomura

  19. Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland

    Janne-Markus Rintala

  20. Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France

    Martin Vancoppenolle

  21. Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Marcello Vichi

  22. Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

    Pat Wongpan

Authors
  1. Delphine Lannuzel
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  2. Letizia Tedesco
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  3. Maria van Leeuwe
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  4. Karley Campbell
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  7. Lisa Miller
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  19. Nicolas-Xavier Geilfus
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  28. Janne-Markus Rintala
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  30. Jean-Louis Tison
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  33. Marcello Vichi
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  34. Pat Wongpan
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Contributions

D.L., L.T., M. v.L., K.C., H.F., B.D., L.M. and J.S. led the design and the writing of the paper. G.C., F.F., N.S., M.V. and M.V. significantly contributed to the ‘Environmental conditions’ section. P.A., J.B., H.K., K.M., I.P., J.-M.R. and P.W. significantly contributed to the ‘Biota’ section. K.B., M.C., O.C., E.D., B.E., A.F., N.-X.G., C.J., E.J., M.K., S.M., D.N., N.S., J.-L.T. and F.v.d.L. significantly contributed to the ‘Gases’ section.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Delphine Lannuzel.

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Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Jørgen Berge, Suhas Shetye and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Source data

Source Data Fig. 2

Historical and ‘worst-case’ RCP8.5 scenario source data.

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Lannuzel, D., Tedesco, L., van Leeuwe, M. et al. The future of Arctic sea-ice biogeochemistry and ice-associated ecosystems. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 983–992 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00940-4

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