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The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat

Nature Climate Change volume 10, pages 89–96 (2020)Cite this article

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Abstract

Madagascar has experienced extensive deforestation and overharvesting, and anthropogenic climate change will compound these pressures. Anticipating these threats to endangered species and their ecosystems requires considering both climate change and habitat loss effects. The genus Varecia (ruffed lemurs), which is composed of two Critically Endangered forest-obligate species, can serve as a status indicator of the biodiverse eastern rainforest of Madagascar. Here, we combined decades of research to show that the suitable habitat for ruffed lemurs could be reduced by 29–59% from deforestation, 14–75% from climate change (representative concentration pathway 8.5) or 38–93% from both by 2070. If current protected areas avoid further deforestation, climate change will still reduce the suitable habitat by 62% (range: 38–83%). If ongoing deforestation continues, the suitable habitat will decline by 81% (range: 66–93%). Maintaining and enhancing the integrity of protected areas, where rates of forest loss are lower, will be essential for ensuring persistence of the diversity of the rapidly diminishing Malagasy rainforests.

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Fig. 1: Current and future predicted fragmentation class of the eastern Madagascar rainforest.
Fig. 2: Environmental suitability for ruffed lemurs for the present and the 2070s.
Fig. 3: Deforestation and the combined effects of deforestation and climate change on ruffed lemur habitat suitability for the Makira focal area.
Fig. 4: Deforestation and the combined effects of deforestation and climate change on ruffed lemur habitat suitability for the CAZ focal area.
Fig. 5: Deforestation and the combined effects of deforestation and climate change on ruffed lemur habitat suitability for the COFAV focal area.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author on request. Historical forest cover data were obtained from ref. 20. Climate coverages were obtained from ref. 82.

Code availability

All code required to reproduce the results is available at https://github.com/adamlilith/varecia.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development of the Government of Madagascar for issuing the numerous research permits to undertake the field surveys underpinning this study and for sharing protected area data. We also thank the University of Antananarivo, MICET/CVB/ICTE and GERP for facilitating the application process for several of these permits and for logistical support. We thank the many conservationists, researchers and research assistants from around Madagascar, without whom data collection would have been impossible, and we are grateful to the following for funding: Alan Graham Fund in Global Change; Animal Behavior Society; American Society of Primatology; The Aspinall Foundation; Beauval Nature; CERZA Conservation; Cleveland Metroparks Zoo; Douroucouli Foundation; Edna Bailey Susan Fund; European Association for Zoos and Aquariums; The Explorers Club; Hunter College of the City University of New York; Idea Wild; International Foundation for Science; IUCN ‘SOS - Save Our Species’; J. William Fulbright Foundation; Mohamed bin Zayed Species Conservation Fund; National Geographic Society Conservation Trust (C280–14, C021–17), Waitts grant (no. W96-10); National Science Foundation DDIG (BSC-0725975), SBE-IBSS PRF (1513638); The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Peoples Trust for Endangered Species; Primate Action Fund; Primate Conservation, Inc.; Primate Society of Great Britain; PSC-CUNY; The Rufford Foundation; Saint Louis Zoo’s WildCare Institute; Schlumberger Foundation; Sophie Danforth Conservation Fund; Stony Brook University; Wilford A. Dence Memorial Fellowship for Wildlife Science. The findings and conclusions in this article are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Rachel L. Jacobs

    Present address: US Fish and Wildlife Service, National Fish and Wildlife Forensics Laboratory, Ashland, OR, USA

  2. These authors contributed equally: Toni Lyn Morelli, Adam B. Smith.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. US Geological Survey, Department of Interior Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Amherst, MA, USA

    Toni Lyn Morelli

  2. Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA

    Toni Lyn Morelli

  3. Center for Conservation and Sustainable Development, Missouri Botanical Garden, Saint Louis, MO, USA

    Adam B. Smith

  4. Department of Anthropology, The Graduate Center of the City University of New York, New York, NY, USA

    Amanda N. Mancini & Andrea L. Baden

  5. The New York Consortium in Evolutionary Primatology, New York, NY, USA

    Amanda N. Mancini & Andrea L. Baden

  6. Department of Biology, SUNY Oswego, Oswego, NY, USA

    Elizabeth A. Balko

  7. Center for Teaching Innovation, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA

    Elizabeth A. Balko

  8. Department of Anthropology, Montclair State University, Montclair, NJ, USA

    Cortni Borgerson

  9. Madagascar Health and Environmental Research (MAHERY), Maroantsetra, Madagascar

    Cortni Borgerson & Christopher D. Golden

  10. Association Mitsinjo, Maroantsetra, Madagascar

    Rainer Dolch

  11. Department of Health and Exercise Science, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC, USA

    Zachary Farris

  12. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA

    Sarah Federman

  13. Department of Nutrition, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA

    Christopher D. Golden

  14. Department of Anthropology and Archaeology, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

    Sheila M. Holmes & Steig Johnson

  15. Department of Anthropology, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, USA

    Mitchell Irwin

  16. Center for the Advanced Study of Human Paleobiology, Department of Anthropology, The George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA

    Rachel L. Jacobs

  17. The Aspinall Foundation, Antananarivo, Madagascar

    Tony King, Hery N. T. Randriahaingo & H. L. Lucien Randrianarimanana

  18. The Aspinall Foundation, Port Lympne Reserve, Hythe, UK

    Tony King

  19. Department of Anthropology, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

    Shawn M. Lehman

  20. Omaha’s Henry Doorly Zoo and Aquarium, Omaha, NE, USA

    Edward E. Louis Jr

  21. Department of Ecosystem Science and Management and the Huck Institutes of the Life Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA

    Asia Murphy

  22. Groupe d’Etude et de recherche sur les Primates de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar

    Jonah Ratsimbazafy

  23. Department of Natural Resource Management, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD, USA

    Onja H. Razafindratsima

  24. Department of Anthropology, Hunter College of the City University of New York, New York, NY, USA

    Andrea L. Baden

Authors
  1. Toni Lyn Morelli
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  2. Adam B. Smith
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  3. Amanda N. Mancini
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  4. Elizabeth A. Balko
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  5. Cortni Borgerson
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  6. Rainer Dolch
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  7. Zachary Farris
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  8. Sarah Federman
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  9. Christopher D. Golden
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  10. Sheila M. Holmes
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  11. Mitchell Irwin
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  12. Rachel L. Jacobs
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  13. Steig Johnson
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  14. Tony King
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  15. Shawn M. Lehman
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  16. Edward E. Louis Jr
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  17. Asia Murphy
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  18. Hery N. T. Randriahaingo
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  19. H. L. Lucien Randrianarimanana
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  20. Jonah Ratsimbazafy
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  21. Onja H. Razafindratsima
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  22. Andrea L. Baden
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Contributions

T.L.M. conceived the idea, designed and developed the project, acquired, analysed and interpreted data and wrote the paper. A.B.S. adapted the deforestation model, constructed the niche model and wrote the paper. A.N.M., E.A.B., C.B., R.D., S.F., Z.F., C.D.G., S.M.H., M.I., R.L.J., S.J., T.K., S.M.L., E.E.L.Jr, A.M., H.N.T.R., H.L.L.R., J.R. and O.H.R. designed and developed the project, acquired and interpreted data and contributed to the manuscript text. A.L.B. conceived the idea, designed and developed the project, acquired and interpreted data and wrote the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrea L. Baden.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary methods, results, Tables 1, 2 and 4 and Figs. 1–7.

Reporting Summary

Supplementary Table 3

Change in suitability by protected area.

Supplementary Table 5

Mean predicted suitability by scenario and elevational band.

Supplementary Table 6

Sampling for Varecia.

Supplementary Video 1

Animation illustrating forest loss between 2015 and 2080 under relaxed (left) and strict (right) forest protection scenarios.

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Morelli, T.L., Smith, A.B., Mancini, A.N. et al. The fate of Madagascar’s rainforest habitat. Nat. Clim. Chang. 10, 89–96 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0647-x

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