Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

A new generation of emissions scenarios should cover blind spots in the carbon budget space

Future emissions scenarios for the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report should explore the carbon budget space in a systematic manner, which would be robust to the updates of latest climate science, so that policy implications can be adequately assessed.

Access options

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.


All prices are NET prices.

Fig. 1: Distribution of cumulative carbon emissions in IAM scenarios.
Fig. 2: Carbon price and cumulative CO2 emissions.


  1. 1.

    IPCC. Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds. Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (IPCC, 2018).

  2. 2.

    Rogelj, J. et al. in Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds. Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) 93–174 (IPCC, 2018).

  3. 3.

    Rogelj, J., Forster, P. M., Kriegler, E., Smith, C. J. & Séférian, R. Nature 571, 335–342 (2019).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  4. 4.

    Luderer, G. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 626–633 (2018).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  5. 5.

    McCollum, D. L. et al. Nat. Energy 3, 589–599 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. 6.

    Bauer, N. et al. Clim. Change (2018).

  7. 7.

    Huppmann, D. et al. IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer and Data hosted by IIASA. (IAMC/IIASA, 2018).

  8. 8.

    Rogelj, J. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 519–527 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. 9.

    Clarke, L. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of ClimateChange (eds. Edenhofer, O. et al.) 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

  10. 10.

    Schleussner, C.-F. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 827 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. 11.

    Rogelj, J., McCollum, D. L., Reisinger, A., Meinshausen, M. & Riahi, K. Nature 493, 79 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. 12.

    Luderer, G. et al. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 034033 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. 13.

    Tavoni, M. & Tol, R. Clim. Change 100, 769–778 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. 14.

    Lowe, J. A. & Bernie, D. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 376, 20170263 (2018).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. 15.

    Gasser, T. et al. Nat. Geosci. 11, 830–835 (2018).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  16. 16.

    Gernaat, D. E. H. J. et al. Glob. Environ. Change 33, 142–153 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. 17.

    Rogelj, J. et al. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 325–332 (2018).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

  18. 18.

    Rogelj, J. et al. Nature 573, 357–363 (2019).

    CAS  Article  Google Scholar 

Download references


We acknowledge IIASA for hosting and maintaining the IPCC SR1.5 Scenario Database at S.F. is supported by JSPS KAKENHI grant no. 19H02273 and by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (2-1908) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. K.R. and V.K. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821471 (ENGAGE).

Author information




All authors contributed to the development of the presented ideas. S.F. and J.R. led the writing of the paper. S.F. produced the figures. All authors contributing to the framing and finalization of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shinichiro Fujimori.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Fujimori, S., Rogelj, J., Krey, V. et al. A new generation of emissions scenarios should cover blind spots in the carbon budget space. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 798–800 (2019).

Download citation

Further reading


Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing