Glob. Change Biol. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14783 (2019)

Demand for cereals such as maize is expected to triple in sub-Saharan Africa by 2050 due to population growth and dietary changes. To meet this demand, agricultural production will need to increase, either by intensifying existing production through higher fertilizer inputs, or expanding the agricultural area through conversion of grasslands and forests to farmland.

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Agriculture is a large emitter of greenhouse gases and so efforts to reduce emissions may compromise food security. Marloes van Loon of Wageningen University, the Netherlands, and colleagues investigate the impacts that achieving self-sufficiency in cereal production would have on greenhouse gas emissions in ten sub-Saharan countries. They find that meeting food demand leads to increased emissions, regardless of strategy. However, these are lower with agricultural intensification than expansion, particularly if gains are made in nutrient use efficiency through good agricultural practices. Achieving food security and climate goals together in sub-Saharan Africa will therefore require careful management to mitigate emissions associated with increasing food production.