PLoS One 14, e0217148 (2019)

Climate change will affect global food production, with crop vulnerability to temperature and precipitation changes differing depending on species and region. It is important to quantify the regional impacts, as these will influence food security. To understand the current effects of climate change on crop yields, Deepak Ray of the University of Minnesota Saint Paul, USA, and co-authors use weather and crop data to construct linear regression relationships for the top 10 global crops — barley, cassava, maize, palm oil, rapeseed, rice, sorghum, soybean, sugarcane and wheat — which account for about 83% of global crop calorie production.

Credit: Gary K Smith / Alamy Stock Photo

Of the countries studied, 53 are classified as having a serious or worse hunger index. From these, 27 have already experienced some reduction in consumable calories produced due to climate change, particularly in parts of southern and western Africa, as well as Asia. In Zimbabwe, an example of a larger decrease, the decline was 7.2%. Yields generally decreased across Europe, sub-Saharan Africa and Australia, whereas Latin America had increased yields. Information on these current impacts needs to be used to improve cropping to cope with further changes.