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Why setting a climate deadline is dangerous

Nature Climate Change volume 9, pages 570–572 (2019)Cite this article

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The publication of the IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5 oC paved the way for the rise of the political rhetoric of setting a fixed deadline for decisive actions on climate change. However, the dangers of such deadline rhetoric suggest the need for the IPCC to take responsibility for its report and openly challenge the credibility of such a deadline.

In October 2018, the IPCC released its Special Report on global warming of 1.5 °C (SR15), which concluded that global temperature is likely to reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2052 if the current rate of warming continues1. Sensational news headlines interpreting this as a 12-year deadline for the world to avoid catastrophic climate change2 sparked widespread calls for urgent radical actions, ranging from the Green New Deal proposal in the United States to the youth activism of climate school strikes around the world, civil disobedience by the Extinction Rebellion group and the declaration of a climate emergency by the UK parliament. The world suddenly seems to have limited time in which to act decisively on climate change — and, if not, to be resigned to our climate fate.

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Acknowledgements

S.A. acknowledges the support of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, Grants-in-Aid for JSPS Research Fellow (17J02207). W.P. acknowledges the support of the Economic and Social Research Council Future Leaders Research programme, “Making Climate Social” project (ES/N002016/1)

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan

    Shinichiro Asayama

  2. Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

    Shinichiro Asayama & Mike Hulme

  3. Department of Geography, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK

    Rob Bellamy

  4. German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, Germany

    Oliver Geden

  5. iHuman, Department of Sociological Studies, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK

    Warren Pearce

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  1. Shinichiro Asayama
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  4. Warren Pearce
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  5. Mike Hulme
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Correspondence to Mike Hulme.

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Asayama, S., Bellamy, R., Geden, O. et al. Why setting a climate deadline is dangerous. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 570–572 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0543-4

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