Fig. 1: Decadal variability in global temperature. | Nature Climate Change

Fig. 1: Decadal variability in global temperature.

From: Decadal global temperature variability increases strongly with climate sensitivity

Fig. 1

a, GMST anomaly over a modelled 500-yr period with no external forcing, for 2 control simulations in the CMIP5 database. HadGEM2-ES (brown line) is an example of a model with high climate sensitivity, while GISS-E2-R (purple line) has a low climate sensitivity. The heavy lines are 10-yr running means. b, Multimodel histograms of decadal variability for low (purple) and high (brown) climate sensitivities in 500-yr control simulations. Normal curves are fitted to the histograms. The individual models are listed in Supplementary Table 1 with their climate feedback parameter λ and ECS.

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