Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Perspective
  • Published:

The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions

Nature Climate Change volume 9, pages 503–511 (2019)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Studies of climate change at specific intervals of future warming have primarily been addressed through top-down approaches using climate projections and modelled impacts. In contrast, bottom-up approaches focus on the recent past and present vulnerability. Here, we examine climate signals at different increments of warming and consider the need to reconcile top-down and bottom-up approaches. We synthesise insights from recent studies in three climate-sensitive systems where change is a defining feature of the human-environment system. Whilst top-down and bottom-up approaches generate complementary insights into who and what is at risk, integrating their results is a much-needed step towards developing relevant information to address the needs of immediate adaptation decisions.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Seneviratne, S. I., Donat, M. G., Pitman, A. J., Knutti, R. & Wilby, R. L. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature 529, 477 (2016).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. IPCC: Summary for Policymakers. In IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) (World Meteorological Organization, 2018).

  3. Schellnhuber, H. J. et al. Turn down the heat: climate extremes, regional impacts, and the case for resilience (World Bank, 2013).

  4. Huang, J., Yu, H., Guan, X., Wang, G. & Guo, R. Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 166–171 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Harrington, L. J. et al. Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes. Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 055007 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Bathiany, S., Dakos, V., Scheffer, M. & Lenton, T. M. Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries. Sci. Adv. 4, eaar5809 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Dessai, S. & Hulme, M. Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? Clim. Pol. 4, 107–128 (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Lempert, R. J. & Collins, M. T. Managing the risk of uncertain threshold responses: comparison of robust, optimum, and precautionary approaches. Risk Anal. 27, 1009–1026 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Preston, B. L., Mustelin, J. & Maloney, M. C. Climate adaptation heuristics and the science/policy divide. Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Gl. 20, 467–497 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Burton, I., Huq, S., Lim, B., Pilifosova, O. & Schipper, E. L. From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy. Clim. Pol. 2, 145–159 (2002).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Füssel, H. M. Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches, and key lessons. Sustain. Sci. 2, 265–275 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Porter, J. J., Demeritt, D. & Dessai, S. The right stuff? Informing adaptation to climate change in British local government. Glob. Environ. Change 35, 411–422 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Nissen, H. & Conway, D. From Advocacy to action: projecting the health impacts of climate change. PLoS Med. 15, e1002624 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  14. James, R., Washington, R., Schleussner, C.-D., Rogelj, J. & Conway, D. Characterizing half‐a‐degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets. WIREs Clim. Change 8, e457 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Church, J. A. et al. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 13 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

  16. Nicholls, R. et al. Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C: implications for coastal areas. Philos. T. R. Soc. A 376, 20160448 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  17. Rosenzweig, C. et al. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 3268–3273 (2014).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Lampe, M. et al. Why do global long‐term scenarios for agriculture differ? an overview of the AgMIP global economic model intercomparison. Agric. Econ. 45, 3–20 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Van Aalst, M. K., Cannon, T. & Burton, I. Community level adaptation to climate change: the potential role of participatory community risk assessment. Glob. Environ. Change 18, 165–179 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Kiem, A. S. & Austin, E. K. Disconnect between science and end-users as a barrier to climate change adaptation. Clim. Res. 58, 29–41 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Kirchhoff, C. J., Lemos, M. C. & Dessai, S. Actionable knowledge for environmental decision making: broadening the usability of climate science. Annu. Rev. Environ. Res. 38, 393–414 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Pielke Jr, R. A. The honest broker: making sense of science in policy and politics (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

  23. Vogel, C., Moser, S. C., Kasperson, R. E. & Dabelko, G. D. Linking vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience science to practice: pathways, players, and partnerships. Glob. Environ. Change 17, 349–364 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Dilling, L. & Lemos, M. C. Creating usable science: opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 680–689 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Warren, R. F. et al. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans. Philos. T. R. Soc. A 376, 20170295 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Carabine, E. et al. Value chain analysis for resilience in drylands (VC-ARID): identification of adaptation options in key sectors. VC-ARID synthesis report (PRISE, 2018).

  27. Kelly, P. M. & Adger, W. N. Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Clim. Change 47, 325–352 (2000).

    Google Scholar 

  28. Moser, S. C. & Ekstrom, J. A. A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 22026–2031 (2010).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. de Coninck, H. et al. In IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) Ch 4 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2018).

  30. Hinkel, J. & Bisaro, A. Methodological choices in solution-oriented adaptation research: a diagnostic framework. Reg. Environ. Chang. 16, 7–20 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  31. Duerden, F. Translating climate change impacts at the community level. Arctic 57, 204–212 (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  32. Tucker, J. et al. Social vulnerability in three high-poverty climate change hot spots: what does the climate change literature tell us? Reg. Environ. Change 15, 783–800 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  33. Few, R. & Tebboth, M. G. Recognising the dynamics that surround drought impacts. J. Arid Environ. 157, 113–115 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  34. IPCC Climate change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

  35. Parry, M. & Carter, T. Climate impact and adaptation assessment: a guide to the IPCC approach (Earthscan Publications, 1998).

  36. Willows, R., Reynard, N., Meadowcroft, I. & Connell, R. Climate adaptation: risk, uncertainty and decision-making. UKCIP Technical Report (UK Climate Impacts Programme, 2003).

  37. Klein, R. J. et al. Portfolio screening to support the mainstreaming of adaptation to climate change into development assistance. Clim. Change 84, 23–44 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  38. Hammill, A. & Tanner, T. Harmonising climate risk management: adaptation screening and assessment tools for development co-operation Working Paper No. 36 (OECD Publishing, 2011).

  39. Adapting with ambition: National Climate Adaptation Strategy, 2016 (Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment, 2016).

  40. Melillo, J. M. Climate change impacts in the United States: Highlights (National Climate Assessment, US Global Change Research Program, 2014).

  41. Targeting Climate Change Hotspots (CARIAA, accessed 23 February 2019); https://www.cariaa.net/home-0

  42. De Souza, K. et al. Vulnerability to climate change in three hot spots in Africa and Asia: key issues for policy-relevant adaptation and resilience-building research. Reg. Environ. Change 15, 747–753 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  43. Zaroug, M., New, M. & Lennard, C. Climate change in African countries at 1.5 and 2.0 degrees: variation by geography, aridity and continentality Working Paper 4 (ASSAR, 2019).

  44. Pepin, N. et al. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 424–430 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  45. Kraaijenbrink, P. D. A., Bierkens, M. F. P., Lutz, A. F. & Immerzeel, W. W. Impact of a global temperature rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius on Asia’s glaciers. Nature 549, 257–260 (2017).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  46. Seto, K. C. Exploring the dynamics of migration to mega-delta cities in Asia and Africa: contemporary drivers and future scenarios. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 94–107 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  47. Tessler, Z. D. et al. Profiling risk and sustainability in coastal deltas of the world. Science 349, 638–643 (2015).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  48. Nicholls, R. J. et al. Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh. Est. Coast. Shelf Sci. 183, 370–381 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  49. Rogers, S. & Xue, T. Resettlement and climate change vulnerability: evidence from rural China. Glob. Environ. Change 35, 62–69 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  50. Wilmsen, B. & Webber, M. What can we learn from the practice of development-forced displacement and resettlement for organised resettlements in response to climate change? Geoforum 58, 76–85 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  51. Mortreux, C. et al. Political economy of planned relocation: a model of action and inaction in government responses. Glob. Environ. Change 50, 123–132 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  52. Duncan, J., Tompkins, E., Dash, J. & Tripathy, B. Resilience to hazards: rice farmers in the Mahanadi Delta, India. Ecol. Soc. 22, 3 (2017).

    Google Scholar 

  53. Crick, F., Eskander, S., Fankhauser, S. & Diop, M. How do African SMEs respond to climate risks? evidence from Kenya and Senegal. World Dev. 108, 157–168 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  54. De Sherbinin, A. et al. Migration and risk: net migration in marginal ecosystems and hazardous areas. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 045602 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  55. Adger, W. N. et al. Role of perceived environmental risks and insecurity in migration decisions and intentions. One Earth (in press).

  56. Dun, O. Migration and displacement triggered by floods in the Mekong Delta. Int. Migr. 49, 200–223 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  57. Renaud, F. G., Dun, O., Warner, K. & Bogardi, J. A decision framework for environmentally induced migration. Int. Migr. 49, 5–29 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  58. Koubi, V., Spilker, G., Schaffer, L. & Böhmelt, T. The role of environmental perceptions in migration decision-making: evidence from both migrants and non-migrants in five developing countries. Pop. Environ. 38, 134–163 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  59. Tebboth, M., Singh, C., Spear, D., Mensah, A. & Ansah, P. The role of mobility in changing livelihood trajectories: implications for vulnerability and adaptation in semi-arid regions. Geoforum (in press).

  60. Sietz, D., Lüdeke, M. K. B. & Walther, C. Categorisation of typical vulnerability patterns in global drylands. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 431–440 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  61. Reid, R. S., Fernández-Giménez, M. E. & Galvin, K. A. Dynamics and resilience of rangelands and pastoral peoples around the globe. Annu. Rev. Environ. Res. 39, 217–242 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  62. Shackleton, S., Ziervogel, G., Sallu, S., Gill, T. & Tschakert, P. Why is socially-just climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa so challenging? a review of barriers identified from empirical cases. WIREs Clim. Change 6, 321–344 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  63. Porter, G., Hampshire, K., Mashiri, M., Dube, S. & Maponya, G. ‘Youthscapes’ and escapes in rural Africa: education, mobility and livelihood trajectories for young people in Eastern Cape, South. Afr. J. Int. Dev. 22, 1090–1101 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  64. Langevang, T. ‘We are managing!’ uncertain paths to respectable adulthoods in Accra, Ghana. Geoforum 39, 2039–2047 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  65. Ansell, N., Hajdu, F., Blerk, L. & Robson, E. Reconceptualising temporality in young lives: exploring young people’s current and future livelihoods in Aids-affected southern. Afr. T. I. Brit. Geogr. 39, 387–401 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  66. Singh, C. Using life histories to understand temporal vulnerability to climate change in highly dynamic contexts (Sage Publications, 2018).

  67. Singh, C., Tebboth, M., Spear, D., Ansah, P. & Mensah, A. Opening up the methodological toolkit on climate change vulnerability and adaptation research: reflections from using life history approaches. Reg. Environ. Change (in press).

  68. Ford, J. D. et al. Case study and analogue methodologies in climate change vulnerability research. WIREs Clim. Change 1, 374–392 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  69. Ayeb-Karlsson, S., Van Der Geest, K., Ahmed, I., Huq, S. & Warner, K. A people‐centred perspective on climate change, environmental stress, and livelihood resilience in Bangladesh. Sustain. Sci. 11, 679–694 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  70. Black, R., Bennett, S. R. G., Thomas, S. M. & Beddington, J. R. Migration as adaptation. Nature 478, 447–449 (2011).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  71. Tacoli, C. Not only climate change: mobility, vulnerability and socio-economic transformations in environmentally fragile areas of Bolivia, Senegal and Tanzania Human Settlements Working Paper Series (Overseas Development Institute, 2011).

  72. Seo, S. N. & Mendelsohn, R. An analysis of crop choice: adapting to climate change in South American farms. Ecol. Econ. 67, 109–116 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  73. Di Falco, S., Veronesi, M. & Yesuf, M. Does adaptation to climate change provide food security? a micro-perspective from Ethiopia. Am. J. Agric. Econ. 93, 829–846 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  74. Wedawatta, G. S. D., Ingirige, M. J. B. & Amaratunga, R. D. G. Building up resilience of construction sector SMEs and their supply chains to extreme weather events. Int. J. Strat. Prop. Manag. 14, 362–375 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  75. Annual review small business activities (International Finance Corporation, 2004).

  76. Grothmann, T. & Patt, A. Adaptive capacity and human cognition: the process of individual adaptation to climate change. Glob. Environ. Change 15, 199–213 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  77. Hassani-Mahmooei, B. & Parris, B. W. Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model. Environ. Dev. Econ. 17, 763–780 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  78. Berkhout, F. Adaptation to climate change by organizations. WIREs Clim. Change 3, 91–106 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  79. Reid, H. & Huq, S. Community-based adaptation: a vital approach to the threat climate change poses to the poor Briefing Paper (IIED, 2007).

  80. Chambers, R. The origins and practice of participatory rural appraisal. World Dev. 22, 953–969 (1994).

    Google Scholar 

  81. Maharjan, A. et al. Migration in the lives of environmentally vulnerable populations in four river basins of the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region Working Paper 20 (HI-AWARE, 2018).

  82. Regmi, B. R., Shrestha, K., Sapkota, R. & Pathak, K. What constitutes successful adaptation measures? reflections from the national and local contexts of Nepal Working Paper 17 (HI-AWARE, 2018).

  83. Pathak, S., Pant, L. & Maharjan A. Depopulation trends, patterns and effects in Uttarakhand, India: A gateway to Kailash Mansarovar Working Paper No. 22 (ICIMOD, 2017).

  84. Gannon, K. E. et al. Business experience of floods and drought-related water and electricity supply disruption in three cities in sub-Saharan Africa during the 2015/2016 El Niño. Glob. Sustain. 1, e14 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  85. Sugden, F. et al. Agrarian stress and climate change in the Eastern Gangetic Plains: gendered vulnerability in a stratified social formation. Glob. Environ. Chang. 29, 258–269 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  86. Piguet, E. Linkingclimate change, environmental degradation, and migration: a methodological overview. WIREs Clim. Change 1, 517–524 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  87. Cooke, B. & Kothari, U. (eds) Participation: The new tyranny (Zed Books, 2001).

  88. Few, R., Brown, K. & Tompkins, E. L. Public participation and climate change adaptation: avoiding the illusion of inclusion. Clim. Pol. 7, 46–59 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  89. Tschakert, P., Ellis, N. R., Anderson, C., Kelly, A. & Obeng, J. One thousand ways to experience loss: A systematic analysis of climate-related intangible harm from around the world. Glob. Environ. Chang. 55, 58–72 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  90. Leiter, T. & Pringle, P. In Adaptation metrics: Perspectives on comparing, measuring and aggregating adaptation results (eds Christiansen, L., Martinez, G. & Naswa, P.) 29–48 (UNEP DTU Partnership, 2018).

  91. Berrang-Ford, L., Pearce, T. & Ford, J. D. Systematic review approaches for climate change adaptation research. Reg. Environ. Change 15, 755–769 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  92. Delaney, A., Chesterman, S., Crane, T. A., Tamás, P. A. & Ericksen, P. A systematic review of local vulnerability to climate change: in search of transparency, coherence and compatability Working Paper No. 97 (CCAFS, 2014).

  93. Kniveton, D., Smith, C. & Wood, S. Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 34–40 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  94. Hassani-Mahmooei, B. & Parris, B. W. Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model. Environ. Dev. Econ. 17, 763–780 (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  95. Lobell, D. B. et al. Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319, 607–610 (2008).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  96. Hazeleger, W. et al. Tales of future weather. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 107–113 (2015).

    Google Scholar 

  97. Dessai, S. et al. Building narratives to characterise uncertainty in regional climate change through expert elicitation. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 074005 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  98. McClure, A. Climate narratives What have we tried? what have we learned? What does this mean for us going forward? Briefing Note (FRACTAL, 2018); www.fractal.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Learning_climate-narratives-briefing-note.pdf

  99. New, M., Bouwer, R. & Nkemelang, T. Regional changes in climate and its impacts in semi-Arid countries in Africa Working Paper 5 (ASSAR, 2019).

  100. Vincent, K. & Colenbrander, W. Developing and applying a five-step process for mainstreaming climate change into local development plans: a case study from Zambia. Clim. Risk Manag. 21, 26–38 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  101. Miller, C. Hybrid management: boundary organizations, science policy, and environmental governance in the climate regime. Sci. Technol. Hum. Val. 26, 478–500 (2001).

    Google Scholar 

  102. Morchain, D. et al. Building transformative capacity in southern Africa: surfacing knowledge through participatory vulnerability and risk assessments. Action Res. 17, 19–41 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  103. Totin, E. et al. Can scenario planning catalyse transformational change? evaluating a climate change policy case study in Mali. Futures 96, 44–56 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  104. McDermott, T. K. J. & Surminski, S. How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland. Philos. T. R. Soc. A 376, 20170300 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  105. Goodwin, P., Brown, S., Haigh, I. D., Nicholls, R. J. & Matter, J. M. Adjusting mitigation pathways to stabilize climate at 1.5 and 2.0 °C rise in global temperatures to year 2300. Earth’s. Future 6, 601–615 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  106. Brown, S. et al. Quantifying land and people exposed to sea‐level rise with no mitigation and 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C rise in global temperatures to year 2300. Earth’s. Future 6, 583–600 (2018).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  107. Szabo, S. et al. Soil salinity, household wealth and food insecurity in tropical deltas: evidence from south-west coast of Bangladesh. Sustain. Sci. 11, 411–421 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  108. Johnson, F. A., Hutton, C. W., Hornby, D., Lázár, A. N. & Mukhopadhyay, A. Is shrimp farming a successful adaptation to salinity intrusion? a geospatial associative analysis of poverty in the populous Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta of Bangladesh. Sustain. Sci. 11, 423–439 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  109. Al Nahian, M. et al. Drinking water salinity associated health crisis in coastal Bangladesh. Elem. Sci. Anth. 6, 2–16 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  110. Lutz, A. F. et al. South Asian river basins in a 1.5 °C warmer world. Reg. Environ. Change 19, 833 (2019).

    Google Scholar 

  111. Brown, S. et al. What are the implications of sea-level rise for a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C rise in global mean temperatures in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna and other vulnerable deltas? Reg. Environ. Change 18, 1829–1842 (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  112. Nicholls, R. J. et al. (eds) Ecosystem service for well-being in deltas: Integrated assessment for policy analysis (Palgrave, 2018).

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work is associated to CARIAA, with financial support from the UK Government’s Department for International Development, and the International Development Research Centre in Ottawa, Canada. The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of the UK Government’s Department for International Development, the International Development Research Centre, Canada, or its Board of Governors. D.C. and F.C. acknowledge financial support from the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, and the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) through the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy. W.N.A. and R.D.C. acknowledge financial support from the UK Economic and Social Research Council through grant no. ES/R002371/1.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK

    Declan Conway & Florence Crick

  2. School of Engineering, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

    Robert J. Nicholls & Sally Brown

  3. Department of Life and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science and Technology, Bournemouth University, Poole, UK

    Sally Brown

  4. School of International Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

    Mark G. L. Tebboth

  5. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK

    Mark G. L. Tebboth & Mark New

  6. Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK

    William Neil Adger & Ricardo Safra De Campos

  7. Climate, Energy and Water Resources Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre, NIH, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Bashir Ahmad

  8. Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Hester Biemans

  9. International Institute for Environment and Development, London, UK

    Florence Crick

  10. FutureWater, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Arthur F. Lutz

  11. Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Arthur F. Lutz

  12. Kenya Markets Trust, Nairobi, Kenya

    Mohammed Said

  13. Indian Institute for Human Settlements, Bangalore, India

    Chandni Singh

  14. African Climate & Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Modathir Abdalla Hassan Zaroug & Mark New

  15. Overseas Development Institute, London, UK

    Eva Ludi

  16. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal

    Philippus Wester

Authors
  1. Declan Conway
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Robert J. Nicholls
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Sally Brown
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Mark G. L. Tebboth
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. William Neil Adger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Bashir Ahmad
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Hester Biemans
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Florence Crick
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Arthur F. Lutz
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Ricardo Safra De Campos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. Mohammed Said
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. Chandni Singh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. Modathir Abdalla Hassan Zaroug
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  14. Eva Ludi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  15. Mark New
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  16. Philippus Wester
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

D.C. and R.J.N. conceived the paper and outlined the first draft; D.C led subsequent drafts; S.B., M.T., B.A., C.S., R.D.C., W.N.A., F.C., A.L. and M.Z. contributed case study examples. All authors commented on subsequent drafts and revisions.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Declan Conway.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Peer review information: Nature Climate Change thanks Sonja Ayeb-Karlsson and other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Conway, D., Nicholls, R.J., Brown, S. et al. The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 503–511 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0502-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0502-0

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing