Tree mortality appears to be increasing in moist tropical forests1, with potentially important implications for global carbon and water cycles2. Little is known about the drivers of tree mortality in these diverse forests, partly because long-term data are lacking3. The relative importance of climatic factors and species functional traits as drivers of tropical tree mortality are evaluated using a unique dataset in which the survival of over 1,000 rainforest canopy trees from over 200 species has been monitored monthly over five decades in the Central Amazon. We found that drought, as well as heat, storms and extreme rainy years, increase tree mortality for at least two years after the climatic event. Specific functional groups (pioneers, softwoods and evergreens) had especially high mortality during extreme years. These results suggest that predicted climate change will lead to higher tree mortality rates, especially for short-lived species, which may result in faster carbon sequestration but lower carbon storage of tropical forests.
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The mortality data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Climate data from Reserva Floresta Adolpho Ducke are available from LBA (http://lba2.inpa.gov.br/) on request. Tree trait data obtained for the current study from the TRY database and Global Wood Density Database can be requested from www.try-db.org and https://datadryad.org//.
The R code used to produce the Cox hazard model is available as Supplementary Code.
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The authors thank the researchers V. Campbell de Araújo and J. da Cruz Alencar for implementing the phenological research and selecting the trees at the beginning of the monitoring. Numerous grants have financed more than 50 years of research. We are grateful to the Coordination of Technology and Innovation (COTEI) and Forestry Research Group of Amazon Species at the National Institute of Amazonian Research for providing data, and to the field technicians J. Maciel, M. Azevedo, L. Reis, E. Nascimento and T. Nascimento for conducting field work. We also appreciate contributions from colleagues at the National Institute of Amazonian Research, the Forest Ecology and Management Group at Wageningen University and Research, and the Herbarium at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew. We are grateful for the contributions of B. Nelson and S. Saleska during the revision process. I.A. was supported by the PDSE programme (88881.1349/84/2016-01), from the Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES).
Journal peer review information: Nature Climate Change thanks Emanuel Gloor, S. Joseph Wright and other anonymous reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
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Supplementary Table 1, Supplementary Figures 1–7 and Supplementary Code
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Species-Specific Shifts in Diurnal Sap Velocity Dynamics and Hysteretic Behavior of Ecophysiological Variables During the 2015–2016 El Niño Event in the Amazon Forest
Frontiers in Plant Science (2019)
Nature Climate Change (2019)