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A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies

Nature Climate Change volume 9, pages 261–268 (2019)Cite this article

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Abstract

The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and increasing of ambition.

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Fig. 1: The DDPP pathway design framework.

Ivan Pharabod.

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Acknowledgements

This paper was supported by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche of the French government through the Investissements d’avenir (grant no. ANR-10-LABX-14-01) programme. The authors gratefully acknowledge the contribution of Ivan Pharabod for the design of Fig. 1.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales, Sciences Po, Paris, France

    Henri Waisman, Chris Bataille, Michel Colombier & Thomas Spencer

  2. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Harald Winkler & Hilton Trollip

  3. Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Frank Jotzo

  4. Global Center for Environment and Energy, Ahmedabad University, Ahmedabad, India

    Priyadarshi Shukla & Minal Pathak

  5. Tempus Analitica, Mexico City, Mexico

    Daniel Buira & Jordi Tovilla

  6. Université de Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRA, Grenoble INP, GAEL, Grenoble, France

    Patrick Criqui & Sandrine Mathy

  7. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany

    Manfred Fischedick & Sascha Samadi

  8. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Japan

    Mikiko Kainuma

  9. Centroclima, PPE, COPPE, UFRJ, Rio de Janerio, Brazil

    Emilio La Rovere & Claudio Gesteira

  10. University College London, London, UK

    Steve Pye & Gabrial Anandarajah

  11. National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia

    George Safonov

  12. Center for Research on Energy Policy, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia

    Ucok Siagian

  13. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    Fei Teng

  14. Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile, Rome, Italy

    Maria-Rosa Virdis

  15. University of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA

    Jim Williams

  16. KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Seoul, Korea

    Soogil Young

  17. Center for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia

    Rizaldi Boer

  18. Korea Energy Economics Institute, Seongan-dong, Korea

    Yongsun Cho

  19. ClimateWorks Australia, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    Amandine Denis-Ryan

  20. UNEP-DTU Partnership, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    Subash Dhar

  21. Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico, Milan, Italy

    Maria Gaeta

  22. Evolved Energy Research, San Francisco, CA, USA

    Ben Haley

  23. Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement, Paris, France

    Jean-Charles Hourcade

  24. National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing, China

    Qiang Liu

  25. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia

    Oleg Lugovoy & Vladimir Potashnikov

  26. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

    Toshihiko Masui

  27. Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc, Tokyo, Japan

    Ken Oshiro

  28. RFF-CMCC European Institute of Environmental Economics, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia, Venice, Italy

    Ramiro Parrado

  29. EnviroEconomics, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    David Sawyer

Authors
  1. Henri Waisman
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  2. Chris Bataille
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  3. Harald Winkler
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  4. Frank Jotzo
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  5. Priyadarshi Shukla
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  6. Michel Colombier
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  7. Daniel Buira
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  8. Patrick Criqui
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  9. Manfred Fischedick
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  10. Mikiko Kainuma
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  15. Fei Teng
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  16. Maria-Rosa Virdis
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  17. Jim Williams
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  19. Gabrial Anandarajah
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  20. Rizaldi Boer
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  28. Qiang Liu
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  29. Oleg Lugovoy
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  30. Toshihiko Masui
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  33. Ramiro Parrado
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  34. Minal Pathak
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  35. Vladimir Potashnikov
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  36. Sascha Samadi
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  37. David Sawyer
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  38. Thomas Spencer
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  40. Hilton Trollip
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Contributions

H.Wa. and C.B. conceived, drafted and revised the manuscript, and led the underlying analysis as coordinators of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). H.Wi and M.C contributed to the conception of the manuscript, the drafting of ‘Backcasting using long-term benchmarks’ and ‘A Paris-compatible pathway design framework’ sections, and to revisions of the manuscript. F.J. and P.S. contributed to the conception of the paper and to revisions of the manuscript. All authors substantively contributed ideas through their active participation in DDPP and critically reviewed the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Henri Waisman.

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Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

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Waisman, H., Bataille, C., Winkler, H. et al. A pathway design framework for national low greenhouse gas emission development strategies. Nat. Clim. Chang. 9, 261–268 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0442-8

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