Abstract

The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and increasing of ambition.

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Journal peer review information: Nature Climate Change thanks Frans Berkhout, Yann Robiou du Pont and other anonymous reviewer(s) for their contributions to the peer review of this work.

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Acknowledgements

This paper was supported by the Agence Nationale de la Recherche of the French government through the Investissements d’avenir (grant no. ANR-10-LABX-14-01) programme. The authors gratefully acknowledge the contribution of Ivan Pharabod for the design of Fig. 1.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales, Sciences Po, Paris, France

    • Henri Waisman
    • , Chris Bataille
    • , Michel Colombier
    •  & Thomas Spencer
  2. Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    • Harald Winkler
    •  & Hilton Trollip
  3. Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    • Frank Jotzo
  4. Global Center for Environment and Energy, Ahmedabad University, Ahmedabad, India

    • Priyadarshi Shukla
    •  & Minal Pathak
  5. Tempus Analitica, Mexico City, Mexico

    • Daniel Buira
    •  & Jordi Tovilla
  6. Université de Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, INRA, Grenoble INP, GAEL, Grenoble, France

    • Patrick Criqui
    •  & Sandrine Mathy
  7. Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany

    • Manfred Fischedick
    •  & Sascha Samadi
  8. Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Hayama, Japan

    • Mikiko Kainuma
  9. Centroclima, PPE, COPPE, UFRJ, Rio de Janerio, Brazil

    • Emilio La Rovere
    •  & Claudio Gesteira
  10. University College London, London, UK

    • Steve Pye
    •  & Gabrial Anandarajah
  11. National Research University, Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia

    • George Safonov
  12. Center for Research on Energy Policy, Bandung Institute of Technology, Bandung, Indonesia

    • Ucok Siagian
  13. Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

    • Fei Teng
  14. Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile, Rome, Italy

    • Maria-Rosa Virdis
  15. University of San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA

    • Jim Williams
  16. KDI School of Public Policy and Management, Seoul, Korea

    • Soogil Young
  17. Center for Climate Risk and Opportunity Management, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia

    • Rizaldi Boer
  18. Korea Energy Economics Institute, Seongan-dong, Korea

    • Yongsun Cho
  19. ClimateWorks Australia, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

    • Amandine Denis-Ryan
  20. UNEP-DTU Partnership, Technical University of Denmark, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

    • Subash Dhar
  21. Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico, Milan, Italy

    • Maria Gaeta
  22. Evolved Energy Research, San Francisco, CA, USA

    • Ben Haley
  23. Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement, Paris, France

    • Jean-Charles Hourcade
  24. National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing, China

    • Qiang Liu
  25. Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow, Russia

    • Oleg Lugovoy
    •  & Vladimir Potashnikov
  26. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

    • Toshihiko Masui
  27. Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc, Tokyo, Japan

    • Ken Oshiro
  28. RFF-CMCC European Institute of Environmental Economics, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia, Venice, Italy

    • Ramiro Parrado
  29. EnviroEconomics, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

    • David Sawyer

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Contributions

H.Wa. and C.B. conceived, drafted and revised the manuscript, and led the underlying analysis as coordinators of the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). H.Wi and M.C contributed to the conception of the manuscript, the drafting of ‘Backcasting using long-term benchmarks’ and ‘A Paris-compatible pathway design framework’ sections, and to revisions of the manuscript. F.J. and P.S. contributed to the conception of the paper and to revisions of the manuscript. All authors substantively contributed ideas through their active participation in DDPP and critically reviewed the manuscript.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Henri Waisman.

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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0442-8