Nat. Commun. 10, 303 (2019)

China ranks highest for methane gas (CH4) emissions, due in large part to its reliance on coal for electricity generation. In the mid 2000s, the country began developing a regulatory programme designed to mitigate and utilize coal mine methane (CMM) emissions, but it remains unclear whether emissions have declined as intended.

Scot Miller of Johns Hopkins University and colleagues analyse Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) observations between September 2009 and September 2015, and find that CH4 emissions in China increased at a rate of 1.1 Tg CH4 y−1 and account for an estimated 11–24% of the global trend. The increasing emissions trend is comparable to that observed prior to 2010. Further analysis shows that emissions are highest in regions where coal mining predominates and continue to follow a business-as-usual scenario, despite targeted environmental regulations.

In light of increased coal production, even ambitious CMM drainage and utilization policies appear insufficient to stem China’s CH4 emissions.