Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2018. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 2141–2194 (2018).
Smith, P. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 811–922 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
The Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2016); http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php
Grassi, G. et al. The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 220–226 (2017). Establishes the importance of land-based mitigation and forests in particular to achievement of the Paris Agreement, as well as the associated difficulties.
National Development and Reform Commission of China Enhanced Actions on Climate Change: China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (UNFCCC, 2015).
Union Environment Ministry India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution Unfccc/Indc 1–38 (UNFCCC, 2015).
Federative Republic of Brazil Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: Towards achieving the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC, 2015).
Walsh, B. et al. Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks. Nat. Commun. 8, 14856 (2017).
Tokimatsu, K., Yasuoka, R. & Nishio, M. Global zero emissions scenarios: the role of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage by forested land use. Appl. Energy 185, 1899–1906 (2017).
Victor, D. G. et al. Prove Paris was more than paper promises. Nature 548, 25–27 (2017).
Millar, R. J. et al. Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Nat. Geosci. 10, 741–747 (2017).
Peters, G. P. The ‘best available science’ to inform 1.5 °C policy choices. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 646 (2016).
Manoli, G., Katul, G. G. & Marani, M. Delay-induced rebounds in CO2 emissions and critical time-scales to meet global warming targets. Earth Future 4, 636–643 (2016).
Turner, P. A., Field, C. B., Lobell, D. B., Sanchez, D. L. & Mach, K. J. Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modelled climate change mitigation pathways. Nat. Sustain. 1, 240–245 (2018). Explores the realism of assumptions about speed of land system change underlying mitigation projections and policies.
CAIT Climate Data Explorer: Country GHG Emissions CAIT 2.0 (WRI, accessed 20 August 2018); http://cait.wri.org/indc
Countries (Climate Action Tracker, accessed 20 August 2018); https://climateactiontracker.org/countries
Grassi, G. & Dentener, F. Quantifying the Contribution of the Land Use Sector to the Paris Climate Agreement (Publications Office of the European Union, 2015).
Forsell, N. et al. Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections. Carbon Balance Manage. 11, 26 (2016). Provides a detailed overview of the planned contributions of the land system to countries’ mitigation actions.
First Biennial Report Of The Russian Federation (Federal Service For Hydrometeorology And Environmental Monitoring, Russian Federation, 2014).
Nepstad, D. et al. Slowing Amazon deforestation through public policy and interventions in beef and soy supply chains. Science 344, 1118–1123 (2014). Elucidates the factors contributing to slowing deforestation in Brazil, as well as their vulnerability to political, social and economic change.
Biderman, R. & Nogueron, R. Brazilian government announces 29 percent rise in deforestation in 2016. WRI INSIGHTS Blog https://www.wri.org/blog/2016/12/brazilian-government-announces-29-percent-rise-deforestation-2016 (9 December 2016).
Alsema, A. Deforestation in Colombia up 44% in 2016: Report (Colombia Reports, 2017); https://go.nature.com/2spBAo6
Arsenault, C. & Mendes, K. Amazon protectors: Brazil’s indigenous people struggle to stave off loggers. Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-landrights-indigenous-idUSKBN18X1MX (6 June 2017).
Viñuales, J. E., Depledge, J., Reiner, D. M. & Lees, E. Climate policy after the Paris 2015 climate conference. Clim. Policy 17, 1–8 (2017).
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the EU and its Member States (European Union, 2015).
Regulation (EU) 2018/841 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 30 May 2018 on the Inclusion of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry in the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework, and Amending Regulation (EU) No 525/2013 and Decision No 529/2013/EU (EU, 2018); https://go.nature.com/2Dfo5Op
Rogelj, J. et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nat. Clim. Change 534, 631–639 (2016).
Sanderson, B. M. & Knutti, R. Delays in US mitigation could rule out Paris targets. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 92–94 (2016).
Reside, A. E. et al. Ecological consequences of land clearing and policy reform in Queensland. Pacific Conserv. Biol. 23, 219–230 (2017).
Stehr, N. Exceptional circumstances—does climate change trump democracy?. Iss. Sci. Technol. 32, 37–44 (2016).
Chancel, L. & Piketty, T. Carbon and Inequality from Kyoto to Paris: Trends in the Global Inequality of Carbon Emissions (1998–2013) and Prospects for an Equitable Adaptation Fund (Paris School of Economics, 2015).
Bäckstrand, K. & Lövbrand, E. Planting trees to mitigate climate change: contested discourses of ecological modernization, green governmentality and civic environmentalism. Glob. Environ. Polit. 6, 50–75 (2006).
Packham, C. & Cooper, E. Australia waters down commitment to climate accord amid domestic political fight. Reuters (20 August 2018); https://go.nature.com/2TWuaVf
Oil and Gas Innovation Spend Up (Scottish Government, 2017); https://news.gov.scot/news/oil-and-gas-innovation-spend-up
Scotland’s Action on Climate Change (Scottish Government, 2017); http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Environment/climatechange
Lilleskov, E. et al. Is Indonesian peatland loss a cautionary tale for Peru? A two-country comparison of the magnitude and causes of tropical peatland degradation. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-018-9790-3 (2018).
van Noordwijk, M., Agus, F., Dewi, S. & Purnomo, H. Reducing emissions from land use in Indonesia: motivation, policy instruments and expected funding streams. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 19, 677–692 (2013).
Congo approves logging near carbon-rich peatlands. Reuters (20 February 2018); https://go.nature.com/2HhewCr
Turubanova, S., Potapov, P. V, Tyukavina, A. & Hansen, M. C. Ongoing primary forest loss in Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Indonesia. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 074028 (2018). Provides an up-to-date overview of rates and reasons for deforestation in countries with some of the largest planned land-system emissions reductions.
Goncalves, M. P., Panjer, M., Greenberg, T. S. & Magrath, W. B. Justice for Forests—Improving Criminal Justice Efforts to Combat Illegal Logging (World Bank, 2012); https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-8978-2
Suwarno, A., van Noordwijk, M., Weikard, H.-P. & Suyamto, D. Indonesia’s forest conversion moratorium assessed with an agent-based model of Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Services (LUCES). Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 23, 211–229 (2018).
Proskurina, S., Heinimö, J. & Vakkilainen, E. Challenges of forest governance: biomass export from Leningrad oblast, North-West of Russia. For. Policy Econ. 95, 13–17 (2018).
Henry, L. A. & Tysiachniouk, M. The uneven response to global environmental governance: Russia’s contentious politics of forest certification. For. Policy Econ. 90, 97–105 (2018).
Green, A. Climate change, regulatory policy and the WTO. J. Int. Econ. Law 8, 143–189 (2005).
Tienhaara, K. Regulatory chill in a warming world: the threat to climate policy posed by investor-state dispute settlement. Transnatl Environ. Law 7, 229–250 (2018).
Sharma, R. Madhya Pradesh ready for ‘record’ plantation today. Times of India (2 July 2017); https://go.nature.com/2MkKkW4
Jewitt, S. Voluntary and ‘official’ forest protection committees in Bihar: solutions to India’s deforestation? J. Biogeogr. 22, 1003–1021 (1995).
Hamilton-Webb, A., Manning, L., Naylor, R. & Conway, J. The relationship between risk experience and risk response: a study of farmers and climate change. J. Risk Res. 20, 1379–1393 (2017).
Climate-Smart Agriculture Guide (CGIAR, 2017); https://csa.guide
Azevedo, A. A. et al. Limits of Brazil’s Forest Code as a means to end illegal deforestation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 7653–7658 (2017).
Scholes, R. J., Palm, C. A. & Hickman, J. E. Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation in the Developing World Working Paper No. 61 (CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2014).
de Sousa, I. S. F. & Busch, L. Networks and agricultural development: the case of soybean production and consumption in Brazil. Rural Sociol. 63, 349–371 (1998).
Jayne, T. S., Mather, D. & Mghenyi, E. Principal challenges confronting smallholder agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Dev. 38, 1384–1398 (2010).
The Landscape of Microinsurance Africa 2015 (The Microinsurance Centre, 2016).
Fonta, W. M., Sanfo, S., Kedir, A. M. & Thiam, D. R. Estimating farmers’ willingness to pay for weather index-based crop insurance uptake in West Africa: insight from a pilot initiative in Southwestern Burkina Faso. Agric. Food Econ. 6, 11 (2018).
Kassam, A., Friedrich, T., Derpsch, R. & Kienzle, J. J. Field Actions 8, 3966 (2015).
Lowder, S. K., Skoet, J. & Raney, T. The number, size, and distribution of farms, smallholder farms, and family farms worldwide. World Dev. 87, 16–29 (2016).
Di Gregorio, M. et al. Climate policy integration in the land use sector: mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development linkages. Environ. Sci. Policy 67, 35–43 (2017). Explores the policy contexts and conflicts that affect mitigation and adaptation, with a focus on Indonesia.
Searchinger, T. et al. Use of US croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change. Science 319, 1238–1240 (2008).
Schulze, E.-D., Körner, C., Law, B. E., Haberl, H. & Luyssaert, S. Large-scale bioenergy from additional harvest of forest biomass is neither sustainable nor greenhouse gas neutral. GCB Bioenergy 4, 611–616 (2012).
Norman, M. & Saunders, J. Timber-Sourcing from Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (2017).
Feasibility Study on Options to Step Up EU Action Against Deforestation (COWI, 2018); https://doi.org/10.2779/97793
Lambin, E. F. et al. The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 109–116 (2018).
Ashworth, K., Wild, O. & Hewitt, C. N. Impacts of biofuel cultivation on mortality and crop yields. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 492–496 (2013).
Creutzig, F. et al. Bioenergy and climate change mitigation: an assessment. GCB Bioenergy 7, 916–944 (2015).
Xu, J.-Y., Chen, L.-D., Lu, Y.-H. & Fu, B.-J. Sustainability evaluation of the Grain for Green Project: from local people’s responses to ecological effectiveness in Wolong Nature Reserve. Environ. Manage. 40, 113–122 (2007).
Krause, A. et al. Global consequences of afforestation and bioenergy cultivation on ecosystem service indicators. Biogeosciences 14, 4829–4850 (2017).
Purdon, M. Opening the black box of carbon finance “additionality”: the political economy of carbon finance effectiveness across Tanzania, Uganda, and Moldova. World Dev. 74, 462–478 (2015).
Raftery, A. E., Zimmer, A., Frierson, D. M. W., Startz, R. & Liu, P. Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 637–641 (2017).
Aldy, J. E. Policy surveillance in the G-20 fossil fuel subsidies agreement: lessons for climate policy. Climatic Change 144, 97–110 (2017).
Nordhaus, W. Climate clubs: overcoming free-riding in international climate policy. Am. Econ. Rev. 105, 1339–1370 (2015).
Steg, L. Limiting climate change requires research on climate action. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 759–761 (2018).
Brockhaus, M. et al. REDD+, transformational change and the promise of performance-based payments: a qualitative comparative analysis. Clim. Policy 17, 708–730 (2017).
Brown, C., Alexander, P., Holzhauer, S. & Rounsevell, M. D. A. Behavioral models of climate change adaptation and mitigation in land-based sectors. WIREs Clim. Change 8, e448 (2017).
Noble, I. R. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 833–868 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Pindyck, R. S. The use and misuse of models for climate policy. Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy 11, 100–114 (2017).
Sova, C. A. et al. Multi-level stakeholder influence mapping: visualizing power relations across actor levels in Nepal’s agricultural climate change adaptation regime. Syst. Pract. Action Res. 28, 383–409 (2015).
Azhoni, A., Holman, I. & Jude, S. Adapting water management to climate change: institutional involvement, inter-institutional networks and barriers in India. Glob. Environ. Change 44, 144–157 (2017).
Dovers, S. R. & Hezri, A. A. Institutions and policy processes: the means to the ends of adaptation. WIREs Clim. Change 1, 212–231 (2010).
Barthel, R. et al. An integrated modelling framework for simulating regional-scale actor responses to global change in the water domain. Environ. Model. Softw. 23, 1095–1121 (2008).
Rounsevell, M. D. A. et al. Towards decision-based global land use models for improved understanding of the Earth system. Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss. 4, 875–925 (2013).
Alexander, P., Moran, D., Rounsevell, M. D. A. & Smith, P. Modelling the perennial energy crop market: the role of spatial diffusion. J. R. Soc. Interface 10, 20130656 (2013).
van Vuuren, D. P. et al. Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials. Energy Policy 37, 5125–5139 (2009).
Steinbuks, J. & Hertel, T. W. Confronting the food-energy-environment trilemma: global land use in the long run. Environ. Resour. Econ. 63, 545–570 (2016).
Lambin, E. F. & Meyfroidt, P. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 3465–72 (2011).
Holman, I. P., Brown, C., Janes, V. & Sandars, D. Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis. Agric. Syst. 151, 126–135 (2017).
Popp, A. et al. Land-use futures in the shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Environ. Change 42, 331–345 (2017).
Griscom, B. W. et al. Natural climate solutions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 11645–11650 (2017).
Alexander, P. et al. Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Glob. Change Biol. 23, 767–781 (2017).
Lawrence, D. M. et al. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP): rationale and experimental design. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 9, 2973–2998 (2016).
Zscheischler, J., Rogga, S. & Busse, M. The adoption and implementation of transdisciplinary research in the field of land-use science—a comparative case study. Sustainability 9, 1926 (2017).
Turner, B. II et al. Socio-Environmental Systems (SES) research: what have we learned and how can we use this information in future research programs. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 19, 160–168 (2016).
Agricultural Risk Management in Brazil (WTO, 2016).
Delang, C. & Yuan, Z. China’s Grain for Green Program: A Review of the Largest Ecological Restoration and Rural Development Program in the World (Springer, Cham, 2015).
Woodland Grant Scheme 1—Datasets (Forestry Commission Scotland, 26 May 2017); https://data.gov.uk/dataset/woodland-grant-scheme-1
USDA ERS—Adoption of Genetically Engineered Crops in the US (ERS, 23 January 2018); https://go.nature.com/2sjRC2Y
Conservation Reserve Program Statistics (FSA, 23 January 2018).
Agcenus Data for England and Wales (EDINA, 2012).
FAOSTAT (FAO, accessed 24 August 2018); http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC
Crop Areas UK Time Series—Resources (Data.gov.uk, accessed 23 January 2018); https://go.nature.com/2H56TPr