Energy Policy 126, 238–250 (2019)

National climate action plans and voluntary emissions reduction commitments referred to as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the cornerstone of the Paris Agreement. Thus, it is paramount to understand whether individual countries are on track to meet the targets set forth in their NDCs.

By comparing emissions under current policies to those associated with the achievement of their NDCs, Michel den Elzen of PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and colleagues offer an assessment of all G20 economies. They find that six members (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia and Turkey) have current policies that put them on track to achieve their 2030 NDC targets, three countries have insufficient information available or disagreement on policy scenario projections, and the remaining seven members require further action to meet their stated targets. Australia, Canada, South Africa, the Republic of Korea and the United States require substantial new and enhanced policies to make progress towards achieving their 2030 NDC targets.

Although previous research suggests that NDCs, even if fully implemented, are unlikely to achieve the collective Paris goals, this assessment suggests that there are many countries who may also fail to meet their own commitments.