The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) produces a region of enhanced precipitation that travels eastwards along the Equator in a 40–50 day cycle, perturbing tropical and high-latitude winds, and thereby modulating extreme weather events such as flooding, hurricanes and heat waves. Here, we synthesize current understanding on projected changes in the MJO under anthropogenic warming, demonstrating that MJO-related precipitation variations are likely to increase in intensity, whereas wind variations are likely to increase at a slower rate or even decrease. Nevertheless, future work should address uncertainties in the amplitude of precipitation and wind changes and the impacts of projected SST patterns, with the aim of improving predictions of the MJO and its associated extreme weather.
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We thank H. Liu and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory for providing the CMIP5 data, and the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. E.D.M. and H.X.B. were supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. AGS-1441916, and the NOAA MAPP program under grant nos NA15OAR4310098 and NA15OAR4310099.
The authors declare no competing interests.
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Maloney, E.D., Adames, Á.F. & Bui, H.X. Madden–Julian oscillation changes under anthropogenic warming. Nature Clim Change 9, 26–33 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0331-6
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