Impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on global human nutrition

Nature Climate Change volume 8, pages834–839(2018)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Atmospheric CO2 is on pace to surpass 550 ppm in the next 30–80 years. Many food crops grown under 550 ppm have protein, iron and zinc contents that are reduced by 3–17% compared with current conditions. We analysed the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations on the sufficiency of dietary intake of iron, zinc and protein for the populations of 151 countries using a model of per-capita food availability stratified by age and sex, assuming constant diets and excluding other climate impacts on food production. We estimate that elevated CO2 could cause an additional 175 million people to be zinc deficient and an additional 122 million people to be protein deficient (assuming 2050 population and CO2 projections). For iron, 1.4 billion women of childbearing age and children under 5 are in countries with greater than 20% anaemia prevalence and would lose >4% of dietary iron. Regions at highest risk—South and Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East—require extra precautions to sustain an already tenuous advance towards improved public health.

Access options

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

from$8.99

Rent or Buy

All prices are NET prices.

Fig. 1: Historical trends in CO2 emissions and atmospheric concentrations compared with model forecasts to 2100.
Fig. 2: Risk of inadequate nutrient intake from elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 550 ppm.
Fig. 3: Correlations between iron, zinc and protein density of plant- and animal-sourced foods.
Fig. 4: Consumption of animal and vegetal foods by income category for the highest-risk countries.

References

  1. 1.

    Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M. & Canadell, J. G. Global carbon budget 2016.Earth Syst. Sci. Data 8, 605–649 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. 2.

    Dlugokencky, D. & Tans, P. Globally Averaged Marine Surface Annual Mean Data (NOAA/ESRL, 2017); https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html

  3. 3.

    Prather, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 1395–1445 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

  4. 4.

    Global Energy and CO 2 Status Report 2017 (International Energy Agency, 2018); http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GECO2017.pdf

  5. 5.

    Jackson, R. B. et al. Reaching peak emissions. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 7–10 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. 6.

    Myers, S. S. et al. Climate change and global food systems: potential impacts on food security and undernutrition.Annu. Rev. Public Health 38, 259–277 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. 7.

    Myers, S. S. et al. Increasing CO2 threatens human nutrition. Nature 510, 139–143 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  8. 8.

    Medek, D. E., Schwartz, J. & Myers, S. S.Estimated effects of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations on protein intake and the risk of protein deficiency by country and region.Environ. Health Perspect. 125, 087002 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. 9.

    Smith, M. R., Micha, R., Golden, C. D., Mozaffarian, D. & Myers, S. S. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model: a new method for estimating the global dietary supply of nutrients. PLoS ONE 11, e0146976 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  10. 10.

    Global Nutrition Report 2015: Actions and Accountability to Advance Nutrition and Sustainable Development (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2015); https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896298835

  11. 11.

    Myers, S. S., Wessells, K. R., Kloog, I., Zanobetti, A. & Schwartz, J. Effect of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide on the global threat of zinc deficiency: a modeling study. Lancet Glob. Health 3, e639–e645 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. 12.

    Smith, M. R., Golden, C. D. & Myers, S. S.Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions may increase the risk of global iron deficiency.GeoHealth 1, 248–257 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. 13.

    Zimmermann, M. B. & Hurrell, R. F. Nutritional iron deficiency. Lancet 370, 511–520 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. 14.

    GBD Results Tool (Univ. Washington, 2017); http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool

  15. 15.

    Global Consumption Database (World Bank, 2017); http://datatopics.worldbank.org/consumption/

  16. 16.

    Stevens, G. A. et al. Trends in mild, moderate, and severe stunting and underweight, and progress towards MDG 1 in 141 developing countries: a systematic analysis of population representative data. Lancet 380, 824–834 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. 17.

    Kassebaum, N. J. et al. A systematic analysis of global anemia burden from 1990 to 2010. Blood 123, 615–624 (2014).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. 18.

    Wessells, K. R. & Brown, K. H. Estimating the global prevalence of zinc deficiency: results based on zinc availability in national food supplies and the prevalence of stunting. PLoS ONE 7, e50568 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. 19.

    FAOSTAT S uite of Food Security Indicators (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 2017); http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FS

  20. 20.

    Valin, H. et al. The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models. Agr. Econ. 45, 51–67 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. 21.

    Leakey, A. D. B. et al. Elevated CO2 effects on plant carbon, nitrogen, and water relations: six important lessons from FACE. J. Exp. Biol. 60, 2859–2876 (2009).

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. 22.

    Ercoli, L., Schüßler, A., Aduini, I. & Pellegrino, E.Strong increase of durum wheat iron and zinc content by field-inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi at different soil nitrogen availabilities.Plant Soil 419, 153–167 (2017).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  23. 23.

    Huma, N., Rehman, S. U., Anjum, F. M., Murtaza, M. A. & Sheikh, M. A. Food fortification strategy—preventing iron deficiency anemia: a review. Crit. Rev. Food Sci. Nutr. 47, 259–265 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  24. 24.

    Smith, M. R. Food composition tables for GENuS. Harvard Dataverse https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/GNFVTT (2018).

  25. 25.

    Smith, M. R. Nutrient totals by age and sex (2011). Harvard Dataverse https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/XIKNDC (2016).

  26. 26.

    Millward, D. J. & Jackson, A. A. Protein/energy ratios of current diets in developed and developing countries compared with a safe protein/energy ratio: implications for recommended protein and amino acid intakes. Public Health Nutr. 7, 387–405 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. 27.

    Miller, L. V., Krebs, N. F. & Hambidge, K. M. A mathematical model of zinc absorption in humans as a function of dietary zinc and phytate. J. Nutr. 137, 135–141 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. 28.

    Hambidge, K. M., Miller, L. V., Westcott, J. E., Sheng, X. & Krebs, N. F. Zinc bioavailability and homeostasis. Am. J. Clin. Nutr. 91, 1478S–1483S (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. 29.

    Wessells, K. R., Singh, G. M. & Brown, K. H. Estimating the global prevalence of inadequate zinc intake from national food balance sheets: effects of methodological assumptions. PLoS ONE 7, e50565 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  30. 30.

    Shaheen, N. et al. Food Composition Table for Bangladesh (Univ. Dhaka, Dhaka, 2013).

  31. 31.

    Prynne, C. J. & Paul, A. A. Food Composition Table for Use in The Gambia (Medical Research Council Human Nutrition Research, Cambridge, 2011).

  32. 32.

    Longvah, T., Ananthan, R., Bhaskarachary, K. & Venkaiah, K. Indian Food Composition Tables (National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad, 2017).

  33. 33.

    Lukmanji, Z. & Hertzmark, E. Tanzania Food Composition Tables (MUHAS, TFNC & HSPH, 2008).

  34. 34.

    Schlemmer, U., Frølich, W., Prieto, R. M. & Grases, F. Phytate in foods and significance for humans: food sources, intake, processing, bioavailability, protective role and analysis. Mol. Nutr. Food Res. 53, S330–S375 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. 35.

    GINI Index (World Bank Estimate) (World Bank Development Research Group, 2014); http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI

  36. 36.

    Milanovic, B. L. All the Ginis, 1950–2012 (World Bank Development Research Group, 2014); http://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/all-the-ginis

  37. 37.

    International Zinc Nutrition Consultative Group Assessment of the risk of zinc deficiency in populations and options for its control. Food Nutr. Bull. 25, S91–S204 (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  38. 38.

    World Population Prospects: 2017 (United Nations DESA Population Division, 2017); https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/

  39. 39.

    WHO Global Data Bank on Infant and Young Child Feeding (World Health Organization, 2017); http://www.who.int/nutrition/databases/infantfeeding/en/

  40. 40.

    Country Reports (World Breastfeeding Trends Initiative, 2017); http://worldbreastfeedingtrends.org/country-report-wbti/

  41. 41.

    NCD Risk Factor Collaboration A century of trends in adult human height. eLife 5, e13410 (2016).

  42. 42.

    WHO Multicentre Growth Reference Study Group WHO Child Growth Standards: Methods and Development. Length/Height-for-Age, Weight-for-Age, Weight-for-Length, Weight-for-Height and Body Mass Index-for-Age (World Health Organization, 2006).

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Weston Foods US, Inc. (grant no. 207390 to M.R.S.) and by the Wellcome Trust ‘Our Planet, Our Health’ programme (grant no. 106924 to S.S.M.).

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA

    Matthew R. Smith & Samuel S. Myers

  2. Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, MA, USA

    Samuel S. Myers

Authors
  1. Matthew R. Smith
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Samuel S. Myers
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

M.R.S. contributed to the study design, data acquisition, review and interpretation of the results, execution of the analysis and writing of the manuscript. S.S.M. contributed to the study design, review and interpretation of the results, and editing of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Matthew R. Smith.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Supplementary information

Table S1

Composite table of the zinc and phytate values used, in units of mg per 100 g of edible portion of each food. Entries from each individual table are given, and the composite values with their original sources are in the far right columns. Full reference information is available in the Methods

Table S2

Food groupings used to estimate the response of elevated CO2 on nutrient content across broader categories

Table S3

Percentage declines in nutritional content of each food (with 95% confidence intervals)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Smith, M.R., Myers, S.S. Impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on global human nutrition. Nature Clim Change 8, 834–839 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0253-3

Download citation

Further reading

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing