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Climate change threatens olive oil production in the Levant

Nature Plants volume 9, pages 219–227 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

The olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is one of the species best adapted to a Mediterranean-type climate1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Nonetheless, the Mediterranean Basin is deemed to be a climate change ‘hotspot’ by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change9,10 because future model projections suggest considerable warming and drying11,12. Within this context, new environmental challenges will arise in the coming decades, which will both weaken and threaten olive-growing areas, leading to a loss of productivity and changes in fruit and oil quality13,14,15. Olive growing, a core of the Mediterranean economy, might soon be under stress. To probe the link between climate and olive trees, we here report 5,400 years of olive tree dynamics from the ancient city of Tyre, Lebanon. We show that optimal fruiting scales closely with temperature. Present-day and palaeo data define an optimal annual average temperature of 16.9 ± 0.3 °C for olive flowering that has existed at least since the Neolithic period. According to our projections, during the second half of the twenty-first century, temperature increases in Lebanon will have detrimental consequences on olive tree growth and olive oil production, especially in the country’s southern regions, which will become too hot for optimal flowering and fruiting. These data provide a template to understand present and future thresholds of olive production under climate change.

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Fig. 1: Olive influx compared with temperature and precipitation, from the Neolithic to the Persian period.
Fig. 2: Distribution of olive influx according to temperature and precipitation.
Fig. 3: Pollen influx and temperature according to cultural periods.
Fig. 4: Climate projection per region for the year 2100 in Lebanon.

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Data availability

All the raw data are available in the dataset (Figshare: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.21666830). Source data are provided with this paper.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to thank M. El-Khalil Chalabi (UNESCO Goodwill Ambassador, President of the Lebanese Committee of ‘Save Tyre’) for her support in Lebanon. Financial support was provided by the MITI CNRS ‘Evénements rares’, AQUASANMARCO program. Further support was provided by the ARKAIA Institute (Aix-Marseille University), the Direction des relations internationales (École Pratique des Hautes Études) and the Partenariat Hubert Curien (PHC) CEDRE. G.B. is supported by LabEx TULIP (ANR-10-LABX-0041) and the H2020 project Gen4Olive (H2020-SFS-2020-1; G.A. No. 101000427).

Author information

Author notes

  1. These authors contributed equally: David Kaniewski, Nick Marriner, Rachid Cheddadi.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. TRACES, UMR 5608 CNRS, Université Toulouse Jean Jaurès, Toulouse, France

    David Kaniewski & Quentin Couillebault

  2. Département de Biologie et Géosciences, Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, Toulouse, France

    David Kaniewski

  3. CNRS, ThéMA, Université de Franche-Comté, UMR 6049, MSHE Ledoux, Besançon, France

    Nick Marriner

  4. Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, INRA, Collège de France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France

    Christophe Morhange & Labrini Tsitsou

  5. EPHE-Section des Sciences Historiques et Philologiques, AOROC, UMR 8546, CNRS/PSL, École Normale Supérieure, Paris, France

    Christophe Morhange

  6. Center for Remote Sensing, National Council for Scientific Research - Lebanon, Beirut, Lebanon

    Carla Khater

  7. Université Montpellier II, CNRS-UM-IRD, ISEM, Montpellier, France

    Jean-Frédéric Terral & Rachid Cheddadi

  8. Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique (EDB UMR 5174), Université de Toulouse, CNRS, UPS, IRD, Toulouse, France

    Guillaume Besnard

  9. Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, INP, UPS, Toulouse, France

    Thierry Otto & Frédéric Luce

  10. Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, CCJ, Aix en Provence, France

    Quentin Couillebault

  11. Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Sciences (INIOAS), Tehran, Iran

    Majid Pourkerman

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Contributions

D.K., N.M., R.C. and C.M. devised the study concept. D.K., N.M., R.C., C.K., J.-F.T., G.B., T.O., F.L., Q.C., L.T., M.P. and C.M. developed the methodology. D.K., N.M., R.C., C.K., J.-F.T., G.B., T.O., F.L., Q.C., L.T., M.P. and C.M. undertook the investigation. D.K., N.M., R.C., C.K., J.-F.T., G.B., T.O., F.L., Q.C., L.T., M.P. and C.M. visualized the results. D.K., N.M. and C.M. acquired the funding. D.K., N.M., R.C. and C.M. supervised the study. D.K., N.M. and R.C. wrote the original draft of the manuscript. D.K., N.M., R.C., C.K., J.-F.T., G.B., T.O., F.L., Q.C., L.T., M.P. and C.M. reviewed and edited the manuscript.

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Correspondence to David Kaniewski.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Map showing centennial olive groves and the distribution of olive trees by harvested areas in Lebanon.

The city of Tyre (South Lebanon) is indicated by an orange star. Data on olive groves derive from the literature31. The data on the distribution of olive trees by harvested areas derive from the Lebanese Ministry of Agriculture (http://www.agriculture.gov.lb/). The map shows the five Lebanese regions used in this study.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Geographical location of the core T-XXI.

The core was sampled near the Al-Bass necropolis, in the centre of Tyre.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Core T-XXI and the radiocarbon chronology.

The lithology of the core is detailed according to depth (cm). The sedimentation rates are shown in mm per year. The radiocarbon dates are depicted as intercepts and 2-sigma calibrations (95% of probability, two-tailed). The age model (red curve) is compared and contrasted with linear (pink line; the Pvalue is based on a t test - two-tailed, with no adjustment) and polynomial (orange line; the Pvalue is based on a F test - two-tailed, with no adjustment) regressions. The radiocarbon dates, with their numbers, are detailed on the graph.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Geographical location of the stations with climate data for olive growth.

A total of 325 stations was used to estimate the present-day climatic range of Olea europaea in the Mediterranean Basin.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Distribution of olive influx according to January and February-March temperatures.

(a) Olive influx plotted against January temperatures (with mean, 95% two-tailed confidence interval and the 25th–75th percentiles indicated on the graph). The long-term trend is highlighted by a polynomial regression (the Pvalue is based on a F test - two-tailed, with no adjustment). The data are contrasted with the present-day climate range of olive trees in January (optimum: average and 95% two-tailed confidence interval; full range: 25th and 75th percentiles). (b) Olive influx plotted against February-March temperatures (with mean, 95% two-tailed confidence interval and the 25th–75th percentiles indicated on the graph). The long-term trend is highlighted by a polynomial regression (the Pvalue is based on a F test - two-tailed, with no adjustment). The data are contrasted with the present-day climate range of olive trees in February-March (optimum: average and 95% two-tailed confidence interval; full range: 25th and 75th percentiles).

Extended Data Fig. 6 Distribution of olive influx according to spring and summer temperatures.

(a) Olive influx plotted against spring temperatures (with the mean, 95% two-tailed confidence interval and 25th–75th percentiles indicated on the graph). The long-term trend is highlighted by a polynomial regression (the Pvalue is based on a F test - two-tailed, with no adjustment). The data are contrasted with the present-day climate range of olive trees in spring (optimum: average and 95% two-tailed confidence interval; full range: 25th and 75th percentiles). (b) Olive influx plotted against summer temperatures (with the mean, 95% two-tailed confidence interval and 25th–75th percentiles indicated on the graph). The long-term trend is highlighted by a polynomial regression (the Pvalue is based on a F test - two-tailed, with no adjustment). The data are contrasted with the present-day climate range of olive trees in summer (optimum: average and 95% two-tailed confidence interval; full range: 25th and 75th percentiles).

Extended Data Fig. 7 Reconstructed Tmin and Tmax at Tyre from the Neolithic to the Persian period.

(a) The Tmin is shown for the colder period, January (mean and standard deviation). (b) The Tmax is shown for the hotter period, Summer (mean and standard deviation). The temperature detrimental to olive-tree development is indicated on each panel.

Extended Data Fig. 8 Distribution of olive influx according to spring and summer precipitation.

(a) Olive influx plotted against spring precipitation (with the mean, 95% two-tailed confidence interval and the 25th–75th percentiles). The long-term trend is highlighted by a polynomial regression (the Pvalue is based on a F test - two-tailed, with no adjustment). The data are contrasted with the present-day climate range of olive trees in spring (optimum: average and 95% two-tailed confidence interval; full range: 25th and 75th percentiles). (b) Olive influx plotted against summer precipitation (with the mean, 95% two-tailed confidence interval and the 25th–75th percentiles). The long-term trend is highlighted by a polynomial regression (the Pvalue is based on a F test - two-tailed, with no adjustment). The data are contrasted with the present-day climate range of olive trees in summer (optimum: average and 95% two-tailed confidence interval; full range: 25th and 75th percentiles).

Extended Data Fig. 9 Pollen influx compared with olive-oil production in Lebanon.

(a) olive-oil production (period 1991–2020) is plotted against temperature recorded in northern Lebanon (main production region). The Gaussian curve (green curve) defined by the Gradient Species Packing (GSP) delineates an optimum and a tolerance zone for olive-oil production. The optimum and tolerance zones defined by the GSP are contrasted with the present-day climate range of olive trees (optimum: average and 95% two-tailed confidence interval). (b) Pollen influx and present-day olive-oil production plotted against temperature. The Gaussian curves defined by the GSP show an optimum and a tolerance zone for olive influx (orange curve) and olive-oil production (green curve).

Extended Data Fig. 10 Drought stress during the ripening and harvesting stages.

Olive influx plotted against October-November precipitation. The long-term trend is highlighted by a polynomial regression (the Pvalue is based on a F test - two-tailed, with no adjustment). The data are contrasted with the present-day climate range of olive trees in October-November (optimum: average and 95% two-tailed confidence interval; with the 25th percentile).

Supplementary information

Source data

Source Data

All the datasets used in this study. All the figures can be reproduced using these datasets. Dataset 1: Tyre. Dataset 2: Present-day olive-growing areas. Dataset 3: Projections for the year 2100. Dataset 4: Lebanese olive-oil data.

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Kaniewski, D., Marriner, N., Morhange, C. et al. Climate change threatens olive oil production in the Levant. Nat. Plants 9, 219–227 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-022-01339-z

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