Predictive models for the selection of thermally tolerant corals based on offspring survival

Finding coral reefs resilient to climate warming is challenging given the large spatial scale of reef ecosystems. Methods are needed to predict the location of corals with heritable tolerance to high temperatures. Here, we combine Great Barrier Reef-scale remote sensing with breeding experiments that estimate larval and juvenile coral survival under exposure to high temperatures. Using reproductive corals collected from the northern and central Great Barrier Reef, we develop forecasting models to locate reefs harbouring corals capable of producing offspring with increased heat tolerance of an additional 3.4° heating weeks (~3 °C). Our findings predict hundreds of reefs (~7.5%) may be home to corals that have high and heritable heat-tolerance in habitats with high daily and annual temperature ranges and historically variable heat stress. The locations identified represent targets for protection and consideration as a source of corals for use in restoration of degraded reefs given their potential to resist climate change impacts and repopulate reefs with tolerant offspring.


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The authors declare that the data supporting the findings of this study are available within the paper and its supplementary information files.The sequence and 3D structures of HA of HK68 and NL03 were derived from https://www.rcsb.org/under the access code 6TZB and 6BKR, respectively.The 3D structures of NL91, NL09, Sing16 and Sing16(Y159A) were derived from [http:// 3dflu.cent.uw.edu.pl/index.html].
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