Fig. 2: IceNet’s ice edge forecasts for extreme September sea ice events at 4- to 1-month lead times.
From: Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning
Forecasts are shown for September 2012 (lowest ice extent on record) (a–d), September 2013 (anomalously high ice extent) (e–h), and September 2020 (second-lowest ice extent) (i–l). The observed ice edge (in black) is defined as the sea ice concentration (SIC) = 15% contour. IceNet’s predicted ice edge (in green) is determined from its sea ice probability forecast as the P(SIC > 15%) = 0.5 contour. The binary classification accuracy and sea ice extent (SIE) error is shown for each forecast (see ‘Evaluation of IceNet’s performance’ section). 2012 and 2013 are in IceNet’s validation dataset and 2020 is in its test dataset.
