a In hospital COVID-19 related mortality cases by date. Daily mortality is marked by gray circles, and a 7-day average is plotted as a solid line. b Number of COVID-19-related hospitalizations by day in all hospitals in Israel. Colors depict different clinical states. A threshold of 500 severe and critical patients per day is presented by a dashed horizontal line. Dashed vertical lines separate weeks which are over/under this threshold. c COVID-19 related deaths for sets of patients that were first hospitalized in different weeks. Observed deaths for each week are marked by a solid line. Expected deaths as predicted from the model are marked in dashed black line. Monte-Carlo-based pointwise 10–90% confidence predictions are marked in gray. Weeks in which excess deaths were observed (positive difference between true and expected curves) are filled in red; and weeks in which deaths were overestimated (negative difference between true and expected curves) are filled in green. X-axis is marked by the week number. SE standard error.