Fig. 1: The effect of extreme degree-days on yields, across counties, and crops. | Nature Communications

Fig. 1: The effect of extreme degree-days on yields, across counties, and crops.

From: Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

Fig. 1

The displayed coefficients are for the effect of a 1 standard deviation change in extreme degree-days (EDDs) on log yield, interpretable as the fractional effect on yields. The response to extreme temperatures is predicted even in areas where the crop is not currently grown. Each crop has a different growing season and extreme degree-day cut-off, so that the model coefficient is normalized by a different standard deviation per crop (240 EDDs/SD for barley, 65 for corn, 40 for cotton, 63 for rice, 64 for soybeans, and 82 for wheat). County outline color indicates the confidence level (solid black outline:  >95% of posterior draws have the same sign; thin white outline:  <67% of posterior draws have the same sign).

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