a The variance (K2) of the zonal mean fields of the inter-model spread in total surface temperature change and the individual partial surface temperature changes. The color portions of each bar represent the variance explained by the first three EOFs (empirical orthogonal function), while the gray portion is the remaining variance. b The percentage (%) of the variance explained by the first three EOF modes (colors) and the remaining unexplained percentage by the three modes is in gray. c, d Same as a and b but for the variance of GWS. The abbreviations AL, WV, CLD, ATM, OCN, and HF stand for processes of ice-albedo, water vapor, clouds, atmospheric dynamics, ocean dynamics plus heat storage, and surface turbulent heat fluxes, respectively.