a–c The spatial patterns of the first three empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes (K) that account for almost all of the zonal mean inter-model surface warming spread. d–f Scatter diagrams of model deviations from the global and ensemble mean surface temperature change, which is the global warming spread (GWS, K; abscissa) versus that captured by EOF1, EOF3, and their sum (K; ordinate). The numbers inside the parenthesis on top of a–c correspond to the percentage of the variance in the WPS explained by the first three EOF modes, while the numbers inside < > on a–c are their respective global-mean values (K). The inter-model GWS captured by an EOF model is determined from the product of the global-mean value of its spatial pattern and a principal component. The principal components of these three EOF modes are shown in Supplementary Fig. 3.