Fig. 2: Dominant spatial structures of the inter-model warming pattern spread (WPS). | Nature Communications

Fig. 2: Dominant spatial structures of the inter-model warming pattern spread (WPS).

From: A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections

Fig. 2

ac The spatial patterns of the first three empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes (K) that account for almost all of the zonal mean inter-model surface warming spread. df Scatter diagrams of model deviations from the global and ensemble mean surface temperature change, which is the global warming spread (GWS, K; abscissa) versus that captured by EOF1, EOF3, and their sum (K; ordinate). The numbers inside the parenthesis on top of ac correspond to the percentage of the variance in the WPS explained by the first three EOF modes, while the numbers inside < > on ac are their respective global-mean values (K). The inter-model GWS captured by an EOF model is determined from the product of the global-mean value of its spatial pattern and a principal component. The principal components of these three EOF modes are shown in Supplementary Fig. 3.

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