a Multi-model ensemble (MME) mean surface temperature changes (K) between the projected climate (2051–2100) of the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) simulations and the historical climate (1951–2000) derived from 25 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 5. b Zonal mean surface temperature change (K) for individual models (gray lines) and their MME mean (thick black line). c Same as b but with the MME removed. Inter-model surface warming spreads (with their respective MMEs removed) in the individual partial surface temperature changes (K) due to changes in d carbon dioxide (EXT), e surface albedo (AL), f water vapor (WV), g clouds (CLD), h atmospheric dynamics (ATM), i ocean dynamics plus heat storage (OCN), j surface turbulent heat fluxes (HF), and k ozone (O3). l The sum of d–k and m is the difference between l and c, corresponding to the error of the CFRAM analysis. The square bracket  in the abscissa labels of b and c represents the zonal average of the surface warming whereas the superscript X in the abscissa labels of d–m denotes the zonal average of the partial temperature changes associated with processes whose names are given on the top of the panels.