Fig. 2: Simplest-model acceptance regions and examples of epidemic dynamics. | Nature Communications

Fig. 2: Simplest-model acceptance regions and examples of epidemic dynamics.

From: Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions

Fig. 2

Colours refer to regions of parameter space where no (dark blue), each (age: light blue; households: yellow; either, indifferently: green) or both (red) forms of social structure need to be included in the model in order to compute within 5% relative accuracy of the assumed-true outputs of model AH: a the final size; b the peak daily incidence; c the time to peak daily incidence; and d all of them simultaneously (overall simplest-model acceptance regions plot, where simpler models are discarded if at least one of the three outputs is not sufficiently accurate). Parameters are as per baseline scenario (population structure of Great Britain, random mixing, R0 = 2, ϕ = 1). On the right-hand side eh, epidemic dynamics of the four models at different parameter regimes indicated by the corresponding points labelled in orange in panel d: daily incidence (solid line, left axis) and cumulative incidence (dashed line, right axis) are plotted for models AH (red), A (light blue), H (yellow) and U (dark blue). The black dash-dotted line gives the total population size (right axis), to which cumulative incidence should be compared.

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