Fig. 1: Models’ output under baseline scenario. | Nature Communications

Fig. 1: Models’ output under baseline scenario.

From: Systematic selection between age and household structure for models aimed at emerging epidemic predictions

Fig. 1

For models AH (first row: ac), A (second row: df) and H (third row: gi), the average epidemic final size z (first column: a, d and g), average peak daily incidence π (second column: b, e and h) and average time to peak daily incidence t (third column: c, f and i; time expressed in multiples of the generation time TG) are plotted as functions of the within-household transmission probability paa and the relative susceptibility of children versus adults ψ. The top row (model AH) is assumed to be a perfect representation of reality. The outputs of model U are not plotted, as they are independent of both variables on the axes (they depend only on R0), but can be read in the bottom-left corner of panels in each column, where predictions of all models coincide. The baseline scenario assumes: population structure of Great Britain, random mixing (same contact rates for adults and children in all environments, γg = γh = 1, and global assortativity of children θg = 22.73%—within-household random mixing is always assumed), R0 = 2 and children as infectious as adults (ϕ = 1).

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