Mean column ozone (DU) averaged from 90oS to 60oS for a September and b October from TOMCAT simulations CNTL (control), fODS (fixed ozone-depleting substances), R2000, R2002, R2009, R2010 (repeating meteorology from 2000, 2002/2003, 2009/2010 and 2010/2011, respectively), R2000_NoIE (no increased CFC-11 emissions), R2000_NoVSLS (no chlorinated very short-lived substances), R2000_CFC11_67 (with constant CFC-11 emissions of 67 Gg yr−1), R2000_CFC11_B and R2010_CFC11_B (with additional CFC-11 emissions from box model for 2000 and 2010/2011 meteorology, respectively) (see legend) from 1960 to 2090. Panel b also shows mean (±1σ cyan shading) chemistry-climate modelling initiative (CCMI) results13. Estimates of the size of the Antarctic ozone hole using c area contained within the 220 DU contour (×106 km2) (averaged September 7–October 13), d ozone mass deficit (×106 tonnes) (averaged September 21–October 13) and e minimum column ozone (between September 21 and October 16). All panels also show observations (black line) from NASA Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument (a, b) or https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/statistics/annual_data.htm (c–e). The coloured dots on the fODS line (panels a, b) show the years used for simulations R2000, R2002, R2009 and R2010. The pink line in the background in all panels from 2018 to 2090 shows the results of the continuation of run CNTL with 20-year repeating meteorology.